GolfHos

i'm thinking 3-4%  .

TGIMLKD

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080121/bs_nm/column_stocks_outlook_dc_1

 [sm_shock]

time to diversify that 401k plan a bit more huh ?
 :sad3:

so adjusted for inflation, how much is it down since you know who took control.

Time to go 100% cash. Oh wait. That's not safe either.  :sad3:

Does fear of a recession generally end up becoming self-fulfilling prophecy?

Anyone?  Anyone?

(http://cache.reelzchannel.com/assets/content/article/stein_bueller.gif)

Eleventy-first.

(http://i45.photobucket.com/albums/f89/jazzy1453/MuslinVoodooDoll-2.jpg)

In some ways, yes.  It certainly makes matters worse anyway.

DOW and S&P? I'm not looking - it may make me cry.

Don't people become most afraid of it when it is indeed impending (i.e., as a common and recurring correction/cycle event that indicators point to as imminent)?

http://bloomberg.com/markets/asia_index.html

holy *feces*,  maybe we should make that 14%.  those futures buys at 5%.   [sm_disgust]

well, i think it depends on WHY the recession is feared, but yes, in general ...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080122/bs_nm/markets_global1_dc_15


I wish I could be as upbeat has Hobbit and Ben Stein, but things aren't looking too good right now.

On the bright side...

Try not to fixate on the above - slowdowns and recessions (If we should we drop into one) are usually pretty short term.

unless you live in the rust belt. :'(

they're also usually not caused by 4-5 years of GDP growth almost exclusively attributable to :

hyperinflated housing bubble
hyperinflated health care
hyperinflated energy costs


nor have they been in the wake of:

massive mcjob replacement of the lower-middle offshored class tech-job.

anyways, already down 400+

Figures. My company's stock is up a few pennies this morning.

fed steps in and artificially re inflates it.

Emergency rate cut by the Fed. Otherwise, today would have been a complete whitewash by the bears, and it still could be tomorrow after the people have time to think about whether or not the Fed's actions are enough.

if asian markets drop 4-5 more %  overnight  this rate cut will be both a wasteful joke and the true autocatalyst to the impending stagflation.

Yikes! I haven't seen such steep drops like this in a bank stock since Fall of 1998.

(http://ichart.finance.yahoo.com/z?s=C&t=6m&q=l&l=on&z=m&c=JPM,BAC&a=v&p=s)

Citigroup is now trading near what it was on 24 Jul 2002, when the DJIA sank to 7700 (i.e. lowest-level in the Dubya Era).

basically looks like the  inflation adjusted  DJIA overall from the bu$hco run.

(http://img85.imageshack.us/img85/3655/10506budf1er2.jpg)

Looks like it's trying to come back. Most likely people will start selling this afternoon, those that did not Firday and this morning.

First let me qualify - its not that I'm 'upbeat' - its just that I'm not panic'd or too worried about it.  Understanding that corrections/slowdows/recessions are part of the cycle of things, it doesn't scare me.  Now, if I was a mortgage broker I may feel differently (jobs at risk n' all).



So, you think this current trend is unique.  That we've never dealt with problems such as these before.  And you're right.  However, every other time we've had a slowdown/correction, it was the result of a combination of problems that we had never dealt with before.  And everytime there were people screaming that we could not deal with the problems.  That 'this time' it was really going to fall apart.

Being new is nothing new.  The market is resilient.

The downside - I do not think we've hit bottom yet.  With pending layoffs in the mortgage/banking industry, consumer spending will continue to slow.  But within 10-12 months of that bottom, we're usually on our way to recovery, slow as it may be.  Is this a 10 month problem?  Not sure.  But I'm willing to place bets on the market 3-5 years out.

Matter of fact, I'm making an appointment right now to fund my Roth for the year.  Buy low n' all  ;)

They also say "don't try to catch a falling knife."  ;D

Wow! I'm actually up for the day (so far *knock on wood*). The market is tricksy!

(http://www.danperezstudios.com/images/workshop/gollum%20maquette.jpg)

Oh *feces*! Down again.  [sm_shock]

Here comes the end of session sell-off.  :sad3:

Mortimer and Randolph Duke surrender.

Oh, oh - I sooo want to post a pic of Beeks (Paul Gleason) with that look on his face while in the gorilla suit, with his gorilla 'lover' about to get his groove back!  But the only site I found that has the pic is blocked by our proxy  :sad3:

It would soo be perfect!

(http://www.amptoons.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2007/01/trading_places.jpg)

Here comes the pain!

DJIA down 300 pts (-2.5%)
NASDAQ Comp. down 83 (-3.6%)

i'm thinking of maybe buying in some when it gets down to about 10.5k

What about short-selling XOM?   ;D

energy and metals  are about the only thing close to safe bets right now... and even then i'm not so sure.

What's the Fed gonna do now? The rate cut did jack *feces*.

Maybe a good MSFT earnings announcement tomorrow will buoy the tech stocks at least.

wow, DJIA just went green for the day.  [sm_shock]

LOL See what bitching about market manipulation does?

 ;D

Some major program trading kicked in.

Banks stocks leading the way now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=c%2cbac%2cjpm%2cwfc

I'll answer backwards - true, there are no truly 'safe' bets right now - and true, utilities and materials are a good bet right now.