GolfHos

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080315/fed_interest_rates.html?.v=9

Two Dollars! [sm_shock]

JPMorgan to buy Bear for $2 a share
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080316/ap_on_bi_ge/jpmorgan_bear_stearns_18

wow, that's the best real estate heist in NYC since Peter Minuit

 [sm_shock]

Fed moves to protect financial system
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080317/bs_nm/bearstearns_fed_dc_2

Damn, you need to change the title of this thread from Tuesday BloodBath to Monday.

I usually don't go in for the "sky is falling"/chicken-little stuff, but it's looking like a St. Patrick's Day Massacre tomorrow.

http://www.reuters.com/article/ousivMolt/idUSL2515874520080225

 :o   it's over.

Fed essentially out of ammo now.  Rates can't go much lower.  Money supply can't really be 'created' when everyone's selling out of all these derivative products or they are simply ceasing to exist.


EUROs trading at 1.6 to 1.
GBP trading at 2.02 to 1.

Gold up 3%
Oil up 1%


Nikkei down 5%
Dow Futures down 3% already (not even midnight)


Greenspan telling oil states to dump the dollar- all but ensuring we're off the $ as the default oil currency within 2 years.



Where is the optimistic Hobbit?-  or have you finally come over to the dark side and accepted that this country is essentially *fudge*ed once and for all?     :o 

my guess: "Amero" currency formed  by 2011.

If I admit we're *fudge*ed once and for all could we have a one month moratorium on the doomsday economic threads?  [sm_devil] ;D

My opinion - We're not *fudge*ed once and for all.

brother, can you spare an ounce of platinum?

WTF??!? How does a stock trading for $60/share last Thursday get bought out for $2/share? If their situation was that dire, how did the Street not know about it until last Friday?

My optimism doesn't discount trouble, or hard times - it is based upon the fact that trouble and hard times are overcome pretty quickly, and better times are longer lasting.


And we're not *fudge*ed once and for all - where do you get this stuff?

You mentioned before that you are predisposed to such (negative) thoughts, but I wonder if its an effect of your information sources as well.  The people that shape your news are people that always speak of doomsday and 'wars on the middle class' (whatever the *fudge* that is).  They are the same people that were still speaking negatively during the boom of the late 90s that you all long for.  Its akin to constantly railing about the Cubs or White Sox being the best team in baseball - every 80+ something years you're going to be right.  But persistently proclaiming it as true doesn't make you smart or even responsible, you're still only right 1/10 (or less) of the time.  I'll stick with the 9 other times that person is wrong and not dwell on the negative for long.

Is it going to be bad?  Yes.  But that doesn't make me turn to the dark side.  I'm a Jedi, like my father before me  ;)

I'll just say I have to agree with Bilbo here.

But I am curious, Aske what is your solution? If the economy is going to tank and the Euro passes the Dollar what do you do to fix it? What will make the US Economy strong again?

 :tape: :bricks: [sm_hide] :tinfoil: [sm_protest] [sm_soapbox] [sm_topicsucks] :isaac:

How is it a "fact" that trouble and hard times are so easy to overcome? What's that famous saying used by stock brokers? "Past performance does not guarantee future results."

Oh deary me, you're right.  Thank god you're here.

I did forget to account for that 1/1,000,000 chance that we are *fudge*ed once and for all.  I forgot to account for the 1/100 chance that recovery does not come on 'pretty quickly'.  Please accept my apologies for so grossly misusing the term.


So, were you just picking fly *feces* out of pepper there, or is it your supposition that we are truly '*fudge*ed once and for all'?  And if so, are you packing your bags for Europe?

LMAO!  I'm doin' that a lunch today.  It'll send the girls I work with right over the edge. If they don't hate me enough all ready, that should seal the deal.  [sm_thumbsup]

"Mike, what are doing with that pepper on the table?"   ;D

I will post a treatise on why i think we're *fudge*ed once and for all later tonight, and trust me, 90%+ of it is 'stuff' that you don't hear about from the 'news'.  [sm_hide]

as for your post to gleek about europe, i can only wish we could get out of here right now
 [sm_shock] :'(

Tenerife ftw.

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/f/f4/Doomsday_survivor.jpg)

as cheese-tastic as the previews make it look, combined with the OTT casting of Mitra as the 'kate b wasn't available type' ,   i really liked  dog soldiers and the descent.  i'll give this a chance.

I remember the "*fudge*ed once and for all" chants in '74, the "78-'79 recession, when I started college in the early-mid '80's, when the stock market collapsed in 1987, etc. etc. etc.

I'm not sure the good old days were as good as people remember. Economies suck, they get better, they suck, they get better. Fleeing to Europe isn't the answer.

And where are you getting these "odds"?


I would, but my money would be pretty worthless over there right now. Mexico sounds better.

Damn, Lehman Brothers down 45% today.  Craziness. 

Odds?  I completely made them up, pulled them from thin air, they were analy extracted, etc. and so forth.  I already said 'fact' wasn't the right term, what is it you're still seeking?


And money, schmoney, have the same fortitude our forefathers did - just make the trip with a few bags and make your own future in a new world.  If you honestly believe we're *fudge*ed once and for all, it should be an easy decision.

Dude, chill out on the "if you don't like this country, get the *fudge* out" bit. I'm not the one saying we're "*fudge*ed once and for all". We might be, or we might not be. I have no idea, but we, as a country, are economically in a pretty *feces*ty situation right now. Thinking that we can overcome this "pretty quickly" is largely dependent on what this country has been able to do in the recent past. Such assumption presumes that the current situation is not a unique one and one that we have the resources and know-how to overcome. There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and I'd like to hear somebody offer a little more than "We have the greatest economy in the world, and we've always been able to recover quickly. And...San Dimas High School Football Rules!".

*deleted*


on second thought it's just not worth it.

Recessions always feel bad, and it's easy to be really negative while we spiral into one.

To me, this one feels worse for two reasons.  First, because we are engaged in two pointless and extremely draining military quagmires.  Second, because we are nearing the end of a long administration that has not accomplished anything domestically, and in many areas has rolled back the clock, which has been led by a complete and utter moron.

But I don't share Aske's doom and gloom, not even remotely. 

I view this as a necessary market correction.  In this instance, its largely led by a shakeout of the irrational exuberance in the financial services industry...which is only double scary because it affects just about anybody who holds an investment portfolio.

For example, a year or so ago, I was looking at some mutual funds as part of rearranging some of my own portfolio, which had become a bit lopsided.   And I came up with this bright idea to rearrange it into a group of 9 funds that covered 9 classes of stocks/styles/broad sectors.   But I had a hard time finding any one fund that wasn't overweighted in the financial/banking sector.  Put another way, I had a hard time arranging a portfolio of 9 mutual funds that didn't still leave me stuck with an aggregate 20% in the financial/banking sector.  I didn't have any sort of crystal ball, but when I noticed fund after fund after fun was had a strong position in financial/banking, my buy low/sell high instincts suggested it probably wasn't a good time to get involved in it myself.

Everybody was riding the same financial/banking bull, which has since evolved into not just a bear, but a frigging bear embryo.

Still, thank goodness for that.  It was totally out of control.

As for $5/gal gas, it is not like this couldn't be foreseen.  And yet, still, the cost of gas in the US is still half that in Europe.  I mean, BFD.  What really depresses me is all this and yet ZERO progress on a real energy policy over the past 7 years, as if we'd basically shoot and bomb our way to energy independence.

But with that comes opportunity, and I'm loading up on what I think of as plays on sectors and businesses that look to be in a good position when the economy perks up again in a new world, one where conservation and alternative energy and recycling will be good words.

But overall, I'm really crying a deep river for all those Ivy league grads who've been out of undergrad for maybe 5 years and won't be seeing those annual 6 and 7 figure bonuses anymore.

GMAFB. 

Well the bull comes up the stairs and the bear goes out the window I suppose.  Put me in blader's camp.  This one is going to hurt worse than the technological bubble burst in the early 2000's IMO.  Then gas was still $1 and some change a gallon.  And the dollar still had value. 

While on a macro-level this may be an average recession, it can be much more than that in certain regions of the US.

The value of the dollar is what is really scaring the *feces* out of me.  No idea what the *fudge* we are going to do about that.

I'm completely chilled - it was all tounge in cheek, but apparently ill-received.  :-[

Every recession is unique - and yet its not.  We've experienced all of these conditions before, but perhaps not in the same combination.  Does that make it a lost cause?  Absolutely not.

Fuzzy said it earlier - we've heard the 'end of the world' cries before, several times actually.  The good times are rarely as good as we remember, and the current times are rarely as bad as we think.  Its like that relationship that fell apart in high school - it hurt like hell and felt like it was going to impact your entire life.  In retrospect it did not, not even close.  So for those of you that may not have experienced this before - yes, it sucks hard.  For those of us that have - it still sucks, but less so (unless you work(ed) for a mortgage company - then it still sucks hard).

forgive me for not finishing this in one part tonight, looks like it will need to be about a 5-10 day series...  it's actually proving interesting and cathartic, but very very time-consuming to do.

feel free to ask questions as I go, but please don't overquote/comment it until it's actually finished in a semi-cohesive piece... it will only stop me from getting to the end faster (or at all)

So please pardon my stream of consciousness style, but on to the topic, an examination on reasons why the USA is now permanently reduced out of world superpower status…

Part 1 of   ___ ?

We have entered 2008 (really 2005 onwards, but let’s just simply a touch) in the phase of a ‘perfect storm’ of conditions which are now currently and obviously (albeit slowly) manifesting themselves to even the dumbest of ‘merkans: stagflation, accelerating energy scarcity, collapsing housing bubble, non-existant manufacturing capacity, shrinking middle class, elected officials working towards an ‘OWO’, unaffordable health care, ever-decreasing average level of education, looming collapse of social support services, global paradigm shift away from using $ as de facto commodity price unit, a lack of useful natural resources required for 21st century western civilization, a decaying national infrastructure developed around an unsustainable model for civilization, a superstitious love for worshipping the irrational at the expense of logical thought, and of course, last but not least, an ever-growing global contempt towards our nation caused by countless foreign policy blunders. Oh, and we have yet to even mention the possible consequences soon to arise if AGW models are accurate…  Nonetheless, let us return our focus to the problem at hand, because if* AGW models are accurate, then the world as a whole is going to die off anyways.  So, it has been previously mentioned that I am a doomsayer based on the omnipresent doom-n-gloom media, and yes it is true that some of these ideas are trotted out now and then in the media; however, it is my conjecture that I will discuss them and their implications in many ways joe moran has never heard of from the media, let alone has the mental facilities to process. 

… So, one might at this point ask, where to even begin with this “insane” list… and I would venture that the analysis should begin first and foremost at the issue that joe moran seems to like to bitch and moan about the most over the last 2-3 years, that of energy (i.e. gas) prices. While the generation(s) before mine often trumpets out the ‘USA USA We’re #1!  We rebuilt Europe after saving their asses in WW2! They owe us, they envy us, LOL, look how they don’t have yards and 2-3 cars per family, hell, the cars they do have are tiny! how do they manage to live like that HAHAHA. My big 500 V8 engine is more power! My penis is big!.”,… with average fuel EROEI now falling well under the value of 5, even these jingotastic ‘meritards are now seeing the principal folly of their ways.  Suburbia is not sustainable,  massive cities with a distinct lack of public transportation is not sustainable, trans-national product shipment of things that should be locally produced is not sustainable, etc.  Everything associated with the ‘ ’merkan model’ for post-WW2 has in fact been a wasteful and idiotic in the scope of long-term  planning.   Meanwhile, Europeans are the ones laughing now with their readily available public transportation, and their centrally planned cities. With no “real” efforts/progress so far underway to develop alternative energy methods, the real doomsayers are now beginning to think we might have even waited too late: there’s not enough positive (aka >1) EROEI conventional liquid oil out there to sustain us through an infrastructure conversion.  Shale and tar sands are a stopgap if you’re willing to completely ruin the national ecostructure and weather patterns.  “Energy and ruined earth or death, I pick energy”  they say!  After all, cheap and readily available energy only gradually built the system we live in now, it will not be happily accepted unless the transition out is the same gradual process.
 
What is readily clear is we will either abandon the NIMBY  ‘nukular’ fears or we will not make it out of the next 20 years. Unfortunately, the best fuel is something that is almost exclusively located and mined in Russia. It is also readily clear that if the ITER project fails (this could simply even mean it works but ‘korprit greed prevents its distribution) humanity will severely off itself in resource wars by the end of the century. ALL energy eventually needs to be generated from processes ultimately powered by the atom, and in particularly ultimately from fusion. Nothing else on this planet will keep humanity going more a few millennia at best with current population/lifestyle. So back to gasoline, I’m sure you hear on the news: ethanol this, ethanol that. Where has that gotten us?  Domestic ethanol production via corn is an  EROEI negative process, and while switchgrass has promise, any farming-based fuel feedstock is easily vulnerable to poisoning/sabotage in the event of resource wars. Compounding this issue is what will be the bioavailable land for crops in this country if AGW models hold ? Oh wait, ok let’s assume someone invents this.  Oops!  Liquid ethanol will corrode almost all existing domestic distribution pipelines.

So what about solar, surely if you do some reasonably simple math you can see that if we cover 1% of the surface of the earth (tropics really) with some technology that harvests/converts/and transmits* solar energy with a 1% efficient process,  we could meet current world energy needs.  Sounds like a simple and worthwhile sacrifice right? Well, guess what?  There’s no feasible technology even close to a 1% net process that could be brought online on that scale. Solar cells in the 30%+  efficiency range (ignoring conversion/transmission) use the rarest of the rare elements.  So what about slightly less rare elements like the news tells you :  hydrogen fuel cells!  Ooops, not enough known platinum / palladium/ rhodium in the world to run these in a national or global scale let alone- and certainly not much domestically to harvest in the hopes of energy independence- Oh, and oops, say we do use all these nice metals up in fuel cells. No good catalysts left for industrial/etc applications: no chemicals manufacturing!     Better hope someone invents fuel cells using abundant elements! (On the positive side, at least people are trying* to do this).  We’ll ignore the H2 generation problems as well, as we could theoretically overcome this tech hurdle assuming all other issues are overcome as well.  Doom and gloom, right?  Well, definitely if we don’t get more serious about tech advancement , current conservation, and future planning towards sustainability.  None of this will come cheap though!  Developing and implementing a far more diverse energy portfolio starting 20 years ago is what is really needed.  Doing it today is obvious. Waiting for tomorrow is suicide.  Current funding certainly doesn’t seem to be enough, but let’s assume tomrrow’s is.  That brings us to a problem I will address later:  ‘merkans and ‘edumakashun.  There simply aren’t enough brilliant ‘merkans to solve all these problems, and a good chunk of the few there are will retire within 5 years: we have to hire foreigners. In the past, this meant decreased wages, however with the fall of the worth of the $ (later as well) this might become less of an issue.  So why aren’t there ‘merkans to do this ?   Clearly public schools don’t cut it in most places in this country as we fall farther and farther behind developed countries of the world in child literacy and math skills. So surely you say, oh well, as long as we can get the best of the best into colleges and just make sure they learn a lot there…  except that of course college is simply unaffordable to most ‘merkans..   this problem might slightly equilibrate of course in light of the current economic climate, but even then,  what is essentially needed here is a deeper public (vis-à-vis tax) commitment towards making sure the best and brightest can afford to get their advanced edumakashun if they really want people solving this energy problem in the future.  It remains to be seen how this however can be accomplished in a stagflationary economy…



...more to come tomorrow and onwards...

Admittedly after only a paragraph.....  Aske, you're a young man that has not experienced all that life and our economic world has to offer yet.  I've been there (even though you would not believe it) - its not all you believe it to be right now.

Now I'll get back to reading, but WOW man - thats just grim.

I just deleted 3 long paragraphs after coming to the understanding that it will make little impact upon your beliefs.  Nothing I say apparently has any meaning, contrary to history, living through times such as this, etc.  You, my man, have religion  [sm_devil] ;D

Rant on...

You had me at 'My penis is big!'





Errrrmmmm... wait a minute, what I mean to say is...  [sm_anon]

I see the equities markets today have shrugged off Aske's concerns

you're right,  they did... for today.  i'll admit i was wrong on that. wow, it almost gained back what it lost last week!  (i'm a big boy and will admit errors when they do actually occur.... I'm also going to LMAO in 6 months when whatever 'creative financing' was used to only have lehman look 'only this bad' is revealed and the process reboots)

 anyways .....I really didn't think people with that much $ would be dumb enough to buy back in yet with  helicopter ben dumping another effective 2-3% inflation hit on the market while there's still a chance of 2-3 more legit 'epic fails' ala bear sterns that could shakeout in the next 1-2 months ahead.   notice how while the DJIA went back up 3-4% that energy commodities did too? oops. oh wait, protecting the net worth of the rich is the most important thing here...     gotta keep that djia over 12000, no matter what the costs to everyone else.   nevermind it's still down over10% in real dollar value since jan 2007,  10% in real dollar value since chimpyco took over (and that's with the optimistic gubmint published inflation #'s), and it's still down a nominal 12% in the last 90 days,  and that median wages haven declined 6-10% in that interim whether people realize it yet or not. good thing joe moran is an obedient little merkan and just dumps what little he can into his 401k on whatever his 'advisor' tells him too.

the only thing the last week has shown me is insider trading/fraud/privelege of the few is more rampant than i ever imagined.  for a bunch of mouthbreathing rails against the evils of socialism,  the average 'merkan just got a shiat-ton of risk socialized on them thanks to the bailout collateral assumption.


anyways, now back to work i go... so I can post part 2 of my treatise this evening.
 

hobbit, i've barely gotten started... just touching on one of my perfect storm topics.   please however feel free to refer me to ANY time in the history of the post-oil boom western civilization that EROEI values for conventional liquid hydrocarbon production has been consistently this low.   please point out how previous generations saw the only viable mega-giants like cantarell , burghan, and ghawar peak out.  please point out the massive discoveries of equivalent replacement fields to these. The only people that have lived through what dawns on our horizon were people who lived before oil. 

as soon as  E. Drake the 32nd  finds some fusion energy or H2 fuel cells practically bubbling itself out of the ground in Titusville  you can officially scratch me off the energy doomsayers list.

thanks. i'll be waiting.

Evidently Mr. Aske's an educated man.  Now I really hate him.

I'm tipping that you'll soon have some Federal Agency watching your every move, if they already aren't, waiting for the right moment to pounce, bundle you into a balck SUV and crawl up your ass with a microscope for posting lies and half truths as percieved by the "State"

 [sm_anon]

Just a warning, you'll be waiting an awful long time.  As I have no idea what any of that *feces* meant, and do not intend to spend 12 hours educating myself on the intricate details of these energy nuances.  You'll find me stroh-stupid on the details  ;) :o :D

You can cherry pick arguments that 'we've never seen this before' all you want - there are equal examples of overcoming what we'd never seen before, having resources and methods never used before, and creating markets we've never had before that pull us out of poor times and into prosperous ones.

And I don't expect I'll be posting in this one anymore anyway - the train cannot be stopped, so I'll just let it steam ahead.

well, for those that don't know/ want to know,  EROEI is simply THE metric of how viable an energy process is.   Enerygy Returned on Energy Invested.   If you harvest 6 barrels of oil but it takes you 1 barrel to do so,  you're effectively gaining 5 net barrels.  Sounds sustainable.... except it's not. Because oil fields start at values of 100:1 or so and gradually decline the deeper you go, etc.  The majority of 'western civilization' was built up while the value was still largely about 20:1.  Oil was cheap and plentiful. All major fields have now pretty much peaked- that is to say the EROEI is falling low enough that they will gradually keep producing less and less until the EROEI is 1 and they are no longer viable- there's no solar powered oil rigs/etc.  It doesn't mean we'll run out of oil,  just that we'll run out of useful oil.  Interestingly, it's not a new concept, just something that has been kept 'hush hush'.
 [sm_devil]

What's your view on Windfarms and Hydro elcectricty??

for the record, I'm just posting info that stroh told me.  he's the true menace.  [sm_shock] :o

That they're great and should be used where locally exploitable.  Unfortunately, there is no feasible way for them to power entire nations as electricity is not highly transmittable over long distances, and they are not a 'dense' power source, and they are not high enough in EROEI for generating liquid/gas fuels

We could just pack the electricity into 9V batteries.  But those things can kill you if you're not careful.

Interesting rant/viewpoint.  I don't profess to understand half of what you're talking about (too many unidentifiable acronyms  ;D) but I understand the passion behind the words.  Of late I find myself screaming at the televised news, so much so my wife thinks I'm certifiable.  Why?  Mostly 'cause I can't believe the *feces* that's presented day after day, hour after hour.  Doom and gloom and then more doom and gloom.  For every 10 hours of various degrees of horror, we're treated to one feel good story about some dog saving his/her owner which is supposed to make us all warm and fuzzy.

What does all this mean?  IMHO, we're overloaded with information.  The internets are killing us (maybe chimpyco too).  Can I find "good" things to read about?  Of course, but you are constantly presented with war, poverty, disease, murder, genocide, inflation, stagflation, recession, and so on and so on.........

So, when all this gets too crazy, as it often does, I find the solution is easy.  Just get *feces*faced drunk.

I gather with the right provocation, you'll put your tongue on anything.

(http://www.sewserg.com/images/products_main/M_3930_addm1.jpg)

More like the wrong provocation, according to Uisce's motion for a restraining order.

Sorry for taking bits of the total post but it's for highlighting purpose.

1. People with $ aren't typically dumb. There is a reason they have $.

2. God I'd love to show you my 401(k) over the past 15 years.  [sm_devil]  And no, I'm not rich. Just a pretty smart middle class person who has utilized his 401(k) very effectively.



[constructive criticism] I'll give you my attention for one more post of your treatise before you lose me with the "joe moran" inferences I'm taking away. It comes off as a bit insulting as I read it to mean if I don't 100% agree with you I'm somehow stupid. Or the implication that the knowledge you are sharing is no way known by anyone else in 'merka. There are actually more good, smart people that work for corporations, in the financial world, aske's hate list, than there are idiots. I absolutely know you don't believe it but not everyone outside of your sphere of influence is a criminal, part of an illegal conspiracy or just plain out to *fudge* someone. At least intentionally.  ;) I hope there is more proof and less opinion/allegations coming in the next chapters.   :) [/cc]

since thats the way my posts are read and interpreted, i'll just save you and everyone else the effort.

 [sm_shock]

Please don't take it that way. It's just that it distracts (at least for me) from the points you are trying to make. I hesitated posting that for fear it would come across poorly. I just think your arguments sometimes get lost in some of the rhetoric.

pm sent

It's raspy.  Like a kitten's.  Who's gonna put up with that *feces*?

niVjE5m4v2o

LMAO.  Stay for the outtakes.   ;)

I can't watch YouTube at work, but I think I know what it is - Cramer telling a caller they should not sell Bear Stearns last week at $80-something a share?

Yeah - he's eating some major crow this week  ;D

Not that getting financial advice from the TV is something the world would miss but he basically brought down an entire sub-industry in 60 seconds.   ;D