Title: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: MFAWG on November 03, 2008, 06:03:06 PM Come on now, let's see 'em.
298-243 Obama. Not the blowout predicted, but still a very solid win. I'm guessing Va. and NC will fall into McCain's hands, as well as Florida.... Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Spanky on November 03, 2008, 06:15:03 PM Anyone want to bet against McCain winning Texas?
Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 06:16:18 PM 353-185
52.4-46.1 Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Teed on November 03, 2008, 06:21:53 PM Obama breaks 310. Va goes blue.
Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: tdcoly on November 03, 2008, 06:47:03 PM Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 07:05:25 PM hasn't PA been blue since 1988 (or was it 92?) Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: 1puttpar on November 03, 2008, 07:14:53 PM 318-196 Barock and Roll baby.
Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: MFAWG on November 03, 2008, 07:20:18 PM First went blue in 1796:
http://www.270towin.com/ Last went red in 1988. Interesting. RCP went from 311 Obama yesterday to 278 today.... Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 07:25:27 PM 318-196 Barock and Roll baby. Which states aren't voting ? ;D Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: 1puttpar on November 03, 2008, 07:27:14 PM 318-196 Barock and Roll baby. Which states aren't voting ? ;D Ralph Nader FTL. ;D Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: gleek on November 03, 2008, 07:35:16 PM First went blue in 1796: http://www.270towin.com/ Last went red in 1988. Interesting. RCP went from 311 Obama yesterday to 278 today.... Looks like they moved OH and VA to toss-up from leaning Muslim. Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: gleek on November 03, 2008, 07:36:30 PM The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174 Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: stroh on November 03, 2008, 08:09:35 PM What's the Vegas line at?
Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 08:37:48 PM What's the Vegas line at? intrade Obama EV @ 364. I think you could treat that as straight O/U ? Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: gleek on November 03, 2008, 08:49:31 PM What's the Vegas line at? intrade Obama EV @ 364. I think you could treat that as straight O/U ? I read that the prediction markets correctly predicted every single state back on 2004. Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Blader on November 04, 2008, 04:58:42 AM I'm thinking blowout
Obama wins Georgia and carries its senatorial candidate Jim Martin (D) across the line. I haven't run the calculations, but Obama EV in the 360+ range. The other guy gets the residuals. Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 05:26:10 AM well, if the recounts hold up the slim Obama wins in MO and NC and NEx, everyone underpredicted... 375 is possible
[sm_shock] Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Blader on November 05, 2008, 06:26:00 AM I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +
but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: stroh on November 05, 2008, 06:27:01 AM I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of + but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect Was that with or without Georgia? Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 06:29:10 AM I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of + but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect 538 was essentially dead on, just a tad too "conservative" in it's methods.. basically a "worst case scenario" evaluator... in that it got every state except Indiana, just allocated some "minor probability" in the MC sampling to occasionally have the 50.5/49.5 states go McCains way on the overall aggregate average Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Blader on November 05, 2008, 07:06:09 AM I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of + but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect Was that with or without Georgia? I really thought my homeies would come through for Moses :sad3: Looks like the bitters were out in force. I'm not sure it is over. I think the networks called it way too soon. There is a slight possibility we still have some out there...and that Chambliss will be forced into a runoff against his D challenger. GA could still end up giving the senate #60, which is nice Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: MFAWG on November 05, 2008, 07:09:40 AM We've still got races pending here, but that's just because we're both corrupt AND inept. But we manage to hide it with big sunglasses and a little skin toner....
Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 07:12:44 AM 538 speculates GA might not have all early voting counted yet
Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 07:20:36 AM 353-185 52.4-46.1 obviously off some on the EC , but... dammmmn on the % [sm_devil] 52.34-46.36 Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: stroh on November 05, 2008, 07:28:19 AM 353-185 52.4-46.1 obviously off some on the EC , but... dammmmn on the % [sm_devil] 52.34-46.36 LOL onecompetitvesumbitch ;D Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: gleek on November 06, 2008, 06:50:14 PM The Socialist: 364 Grampy: 174 Ahem (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/) ;D Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: Aske on November 06, 2008, 06:52:06 PM The Socialist: 364 Grampy: 174 Ahem (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/) ;D you missed the 1 NE ev he will get . [sm_devil] Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions.... Post by: gleek on November 06, 2008, 06:58:54 PM The Socialist: 364 Grampy: 174 Ahem (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/) ;D you missed the 1 NE ev he will get . [sm_devil] Stupid Bugeaters! Just 'em all to McCain! |