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General => The Cantina => Topic started by: MFAWG on November 03, 2008, 06:03:06 PM



Title: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: MFAWG on November 03, 2008, 06:03:06 PM
Come on now, let's see 'em.

298-243 Obama.

Not the blowout predicted, but still a very solid win. I'm guessing Va. and NC will fall into McCain's hands, as well as Florida....


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Spanky on November 03, 2008, 06:15:03 PM
Anyone want to bet against McCain winning Texas?


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 06:16:18 PM
353-185
52.4-46.1


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Teed on November 03, 2008, 06:21:53 PM
Obama breaks 310. Va goes blue.


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: tdcoly on November 03, 2008, 06:47:03 PM
Obama breaks 310. Va goes blue.

And PA


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 07:05:25 PM
Obama breaks 310. Va goes blue.

And PA

hasn't PA been blue since 1988 (or was it 92?)


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: 1puttpar on November 03, 2008, 07:14:53 PM
318-196 Barock and Roll baby.


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: MFAWG on November 03, 2008, 07:20:18 PM
First went blue in 1796:

http://www.270towin.com/

Last went red in 1988. 

Interesting. RCP went from 311 Obama yesterday to 278 today....





Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 07:25:27 PM
318-196 Barock and Roll baby.

Which states aren't voting ?
 ;D


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: 1puttpar on November 03, 2008, 07:27:14 PM
318-196 Barock and Roll baby.

Which states aren't voting ?
 ;D

Ralph Nader FTL. ;D


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: gleek on November 03, 2008, 07:35:16 PM
First went blue in 1796:

http://www.270towin.com/

Last went red in 1988. 

Interesting. RCP went from 311 Obama yesterday to 278 today....

Looks like they moved OH and VA to toss-up from leaning Muslim.


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: gleek on November 03, 2008, 07:36:30 PM
The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: stroh on November 03, 2008, 08:09:35 PM
What's the Vegas line at?


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 03, 2008, 08:37:48 PM
What's the Vegas line at?

intrade Obama EV @ 364.   I think you could treat that as straight O/U ?


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: gleek on November 03, 2008, 08:49:31 PM
What's the Vegas line at?

intrade Obama EV @ 364.   I think you could treat that as straight O/U ?


I read that the prediction markets correctly predicted every single state back on 2004.


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Blader on November 04, 2008, 04:58:42 AM
I'm thinking blowout

Obama wins Georgia and carries its senatorial candidate Jim Martin (D) across the line.

I haven't run the calculations, but Obama EV in the 360+ range.  The other guy gets the residuals.


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 05:26:10 AM
well, if the recounts hold up the slim Obama wins in MO and NC and NEx, everyone underpredicted...   375 is possible
 [sm_shock]


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Blader on November 05, 2008, 06:26:00 AM
I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +

but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: stroh on November 05, 2008, 06:27:01 AM
I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +

but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect

Was that with or without Georgia?


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 06:29:10 AM
I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +

but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect

538 was essentially dead on, just a tad too "conservative" in it's methods..  basically a "worst case scenario" evaluator... in that it got every state except Indiana, just allocated some "minor probability" in the MC sampling to occasionally have the 50.5/49.5 states go McCains way on the overall aggregate average


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Blader on November 05, 2008, 07:06:09 AM
I said 360+, just didn't strictly define the value of +

but, I sensed it would be larger than 538.com would have led us to expect

Was that with or without Georgia?

I really thought my homeies would come through for Moses :sad3:

Looks like the bitters were out in force.

I'm not sure it is over.  I think the networks called it way too soon.  There is a slight possibility we still have some out there...and that Chambliss will be forced into a runoff against his D challenger.

GA could still end up giving the senate #60, which is nice



Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: MFAWG on November 05, 2008, 07:09:40 AM
We've still got races pending here, but that's just because we're both corrupt AND inept. But we manage to hide it with big sunglasses and a little skin toner....


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 07:12:44 AM
538 speculates GA might not have all early voting counted yet


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 05, 2008, 07:20:36 AM
353-185
52.4-46.1


obviously off some on the EC , but... dammmmn on the %  [sm_devil]
52.34-46.36


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: stroh on November 05, 2008, 07:28:19 AM
353-185
52.4-46.1


obviously off some on the EC , but... dammmmn on the %  [sm_devil]
52.34-46.36


LOL   

onecompetitvesumbitch   ;D


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: gleek on November 06, 2008, 06:50:14 PM
The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174

Ahem (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/)

 ;D


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: Aske on November 06, 2008, 06:52:06 PM
The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174

Ahem (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/)

 ;D

you missed the 1 NE ev he will get .
 [sm_devil]


Title: Re: [Politics/Religion] Predictions....
Post by: gleek on November 06, 2008, 06:58:54 PM
The Socialist: 364
Grampy: 174

Ahem (http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032553/)

 ;D

you missed the 1 NE ev he will get .
 [sm_devil]

Stupid Bugeaters! Just 'em all to McCain!