GolfHos

http://www.paulgraham.com/microsoft.html

I've offered my "ten years max" prognosis here before.  Even though I'm not convinced about all the points the author makes it is interesting that the article has been written (and others like it).  That itself was unthinkable five years ago.

Redmond is like a super tanker.  It takes half an ocean to change direction never mind turn around.

Interesting article. Doesn't it usually happen that once you get big someone comes along and eventually takes your place? It was a matter of time.

Yeah, see Big Blue for prime example.  It seems the lesson is never learned though.  Or perhaps it's learned but sheer momentum makes it impossible to act upon the knowledge.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in games.  Many webapps are catching up quickly to their desktop counterparts, but there are some big technical hurdles with games.

It's funny that Google has replaced Microsoft as the evil empire, I've been seeing that a lot recently.  My friends who work there are in denial.

Uisce, what's your take on Silverlight, Apollo, JavaFX, etc.?

Had to Google Silverlight but it looks like it's .NET only.  Is that correct?  That'll kill it in my opinion.  Not dead dead but bleeding badly and wither away dead.

Apollo is pretty cool.  We do a bit of Flex and Ajax and there's a lot of potential there.  Adobe is the silent player in all of this Web 2.0 stuff.  They'll have something to say before all is said and done.

JavaFX I don't give much of a chance.  Sun can *fudge* up a wet dream.  Having said that, maybe.  They're bound to get it right one of these times.

Not much of a rich media geek to be honest.  MIS, B2B, dashboards, webservices, etc. are my game.  But it's a new world out there for everyone. 

"Life moves pretty fast. If you don't slow down and look around, you might miss it"

I'm not following the RIA(rich internet apps) space much either.  I got together with some folks I used to work with 10 years ago recently and they were really jazzed about the UI possibilities now.

I did a lot of AJAX work a year ago, but recently I'm doing stuff for mobile phones, so I've gone backwards in the complexity of user experiences I'm dealing with.

Interesting read.

Wow - hope ya'll didn't drink this guys kool-aid.  He's a bit too narrow-minded.

The 'desktop' is dead?  Uh... no.  It should be, but the open-source community is not as smart or efficient as we think (and hoped).  And I'm not just talking your traditional desktops either - mobile devices too.  Windows Mobile is selling like wild on both PDAs and smartphones.  The developer community for the Windows family of OSes is very much alive and smashing all others.

Sure, Google has a better business model and will take a lot from Microsoft and others; but that does not mean the death of Microsoft.

And I'm not particularly a Microsoft fan or defender either - I'm a Unix bigot at heart and would welcome real change.  But when I was looking to trade in my old Palm smartphone for something new, Windows Mobile was the only thing that satisfied my requirements - no open-source or Google solution was in play.

Open source missed the directory services window (I was in talks with Nick Petreley years ago when he was at Infoworld about this and he ended up writing some of the things I shared in his articles on this window of opportunity - the community still missed the mark), and is missing the mobile device battle to a great extent.  ...The 'desktop' isn't dead.

Oh - and Microsoft has been making real inquiries into acquiring Yahoo.  This would really turn my stomach - but you cannot deny the services and users it would supply them.  Dead they is not.

Rick, I don't think the desktop is dead.  But it's going to act much more as a thick/thin client rather than as a standalone desktop.  That's for certain in my view.

Microsoft isn't going to go away but its influence and domination will be severely curtailed.  IBM still exists but we can't deny their position is nothing like it was in the 70s.

I don't care who wins as long as nobody wins.   That makes much more sense in my head than it does on paper.  [sm_scratch]

Is the desktop dead?  I know mine is buried beneath layers of paperwork, CDs, DVDs, old cables and crap. I'd say mine is dead and decayed.

until  Joe M. O'Ran  can figure out how to use a command shell effectively, winblows will be here to stay.

Certainly an interesting article.  I wouldn't say Microsoft is dead, but they do seem to have lost some power.  IMO, they over-hyped vi$ta.  Though it is a good OS (micro$oftly speaking), it took them much to long in getting it out once they started talking about it.  It's also too expensive, takes up too much disk space, and eats a lot of resources.  Should have fine-tuned it more and talked about it less.  And Office 2007 is just as spendy - actually, more so ($340 on sale for the pro?!? ::) I don't think so.)  I also think Microsoft will be around and fairly dominant until programs for other OSs can be more widely found.

Yeah, Office 2007 is getting a resounding "blah" from my IS co-workers - looks like we may not be moving to it anytime soon, if ever.

What cannot be overlooked however, is the 'unified communications' play MS is making.  Office Communicator, LiveMeeting, Exchange 2007, and soon to improve voice capabilities all lead to a very strong corporate platform.  Now, of course things like jabber, dimdim, asterisk, etc. can provide some of the same - but how tightly integrated?  And on mobile devices?  This is how MS will beat them to the punch.

I wish it weren't true and have even contacted the dimdim developers for more integration - but its all very slow moving, while MS is moving quickly.




BTW - anyone using and paying for WebEx, LiveMeeting, etc. should check out dimdim.  Good product for an alpha release - looking forward to the beta.