Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
 OfflineGet me the tank!
 
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #15 on: February 11, 2008, 08:54:25 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this)  Once you get this sorted let me know. My wife will think I'm wicked smart when I tell her I figured it out myself. Well, probably not. She'll say, "why were you wasting time on that when the basement needs framed?"  |
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi
"Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #16 on: February 11, 2008, 08:54:29 AM » |
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LOL This thread rocks.
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gleek
Flak Jacket
Karma: 107 Posts: 9510
OfflineE chu ta!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #17 on: February 11, 2008, 09:21:51 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this) What kind of assumptions did you intend to make about the population size and color distribution? If it's not a matter of pulling 5 pieces from the same population on two seperate occasions (i.e. putting what you pulled out back into the population), at minimum, you'd have to assume that there are at least 8 blue ones in the bag (as well as 8 green ones, if assuming even distribution). Then it's a matter of assuming how many non-blue/green pieces are in the bag as well. According to this web page, there are 6 colors in a standard bag. So, I think a reasonable method would be this: Calculate the probability of pulling 4b1g (stroh will like this terminology  ) from a population of: 8 blue 8 green 32 other And then multiply that by the probability of pulling 4b1g from a poulation of: 4 blue 7 green 32 other |
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Woman, open the door, don't let it sting. I wanna breathe that fire again.
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #18 on: February 11, 2008, 09:34:33 AM » |
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I was going by creating a bag with 1.2k pieces, 6 colors each, with a target* random seed of 200 each (but with the seeding to allow variance {hence randomness} around the 200pc ideal stating point per color. Then run statistics on emptying the bag, probably 1000 times. Then shape the statistics down to the normal bag size which is (undetermined yet) but probably 300 pieces? There would be no putbacks
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #19 on: February 11, 2008, 09:36:45 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this) Once you get this sorted let me know. My wife will think I'm wicked smart when I tell her I figured it out myself. Well, probably not. She'll say, "why were you wasting time on that when the basement needs framed?" hell no I'm not letting you take the credit |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #20 on: February 11, 2008, 09:44:04 AM » |
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Peanut?
Absolutely. The plain ones suck.  btw, peanut m+m's suck. worst peanuts ever.  |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #21 on: February 11, 2008, 09:47:57 AM » |
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*fiddlesticks* this. I've had it with you guys' bull*feces* voo doo economics smoke and mirrors astrophysics. The equation/answer is painfully simple. The odds are 50/50. Either an event occurs, or it does not. Kind of like Whiskers' take on rule infractions. Toss a quarter 50 times, 50th time, blah blah. Now go get Daddy a beer. |
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #22 on: February 11, 2008, 09:49:26 AM » |
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Peanut?
Absolutely. The plain ones suck. btw, peanut m+m's suck. worst peanuts ever. Kinda like that joke about going to the old folks home, and the sees a bowl of peanuts....... |
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Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
OfflineGet me the tank!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #23 on: February 11, 2008, 09:50:39 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this) Once you get this sorted let me know. My wife will think I'm wicked smart when I tell her I figured it out myself. Well, probably not. She'll say, "why were you wasting time on that when the basement needs framed?" hell no I'm not letting you take the credit Some wingman you are.  |
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi
"Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
OfflineGet me the tank!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #24 on: February 11, 2008, 09:52:30 AM » |
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Peanut?
Absolutely. The plain ones suck. btw, peanut m+m's suck. worst peanuts ever. Coffee, beer and spices. Other than those who gives a *feces*. Good enough I say. |
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi
"Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
Offline
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #25 on: February 11, 2008, 09:55:38 AM » |
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*fiddlesticks* this. I've had it with you guys' bull*feces* voo doo economics smoke and mirrors astrophysics. The equation/answer is painfully simple. The odds are 50/50. Either an event occurs, or it does not. Kind of like Whiskers' take on rule infractions. Toss a quarter 50 times, 50th time, blah blah. Now go get Daddy a beer. ok. the 'event' : stroh has $3M in cash in his wallet. odds 50:50 if he does, he can keep it. if he doesn't, he gives $3M to me. |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
Offline
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #26 on: February 11, 2008, 09:56:12 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this) Once you get this sorted let me know. My wife will think I'm wicked smart when I tell her I figured it out myself. Well, probably not. She'll say, "why were you wasting time on that when the basement needs framed?" hell no I'm not letting you take the credit Some wingman you are. ok, fine, you can take the credit, but it will cost you. ps, I doubt i'll get to this until mid/late week  |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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gleek
Flak Jacket
Karma: 107 Posts: 9510
OfflineE chu ta!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #27 on: February 11, 2008, 10:02:54 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this) Once you get this sorted let me know. My wife will think I'm wicked smart when I tell her I figured it out myself. Well, probably not. She'll say, "why were you wasting time on that when the basement needs framed?" hell no I'm not letting you take the credit Some wingman you are. ok, fine, you can take the credit, but it will cost you. ps, I doubt i'll get to this until mid/late week Why? Are you going to run this simulation on a 8088? |
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Woman, open the door, don't let it sting. I wanna breathe that fire again.
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #28 on: February 11, 2008, 10:07:53 AM » |
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LOL  And Tom Cruise Surrenders. |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
Offline
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2008, 10:08:08 AM » |
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see, i dont see it that way, i was just going with the time evolution (time being pieces left in bag at event sample) of the probability of snagging 4:1 (and yes, i was going to write a program to do this) Once you get this sorted let me know. My wife will think I'm wicked smart when I tell her I figured it out myself. Well, probably not. She'll say, "why were you wasting time on that when the basement needs framed?" hell no I'm not letting you take the credit Some wingman you are. ok, fine, you can take the credit, but it will cost you. ps, I doubt i'll get to this until mid/late week Why? Are you going to run this simulation on a 8088? lol. i just doubt i'll have time to write the code until thursday |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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