Clive
Full Metal Jacket
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #30 on: February 11, 2008, 10:48:47 AM » |
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Golfhos: sucking the fun out of everyday events since, I don't know, September-ish 2006.
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twoiron
Full Metal Jacket From: The Drawing Room
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #31 on: February 11, 2008, 12:48:18 PM » |
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Women, can't live 'em..... pass the beer nuts..
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"Nothing says sorry like a warm plate of bacon... or so I'm told"
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #32 on: February 11, 2008, 02:01:46 PM » |
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so I had a brief lull in work and sat down working on a program. i'll post some stats in a minute. I have no idea how good they are yet (didn't use a great random # generator, etc)  just as an interesting effect from a debugging  run..... if you run 100,000 300-pc bags, with the 1st 10 fixed (in order), it only seems to happen additionally {beyond the fixed 1st 10 chain) in 12 bags on average (based on 5 runs) using the 6th-10th m+ms as seeds. that's 12/100,000 with the 5pc seed to start the chain! (in a 300 m+m bag!!!) , and not at all past that seeding. this seems like it should be a staggeringly unlikely event in a small size bag with a truly random distribution of pieces. (as random intuition would seem to dictate) |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #33 on: February 11, 2008, 02:12:17 PM » |
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so, main experiment: initial conditions: individual bag samples of 300 pieces each (theoretically averaging 50pcs/color) over many many bags with random distributions allowed 2,500,000 bags sampled in total 4b,1g,4b,1g in that order... almost never happens- 6 instances counted out of the 2.5 M bags (next step, write a flag to see if it ever happens more than 1x/bag.. too lazy this time around) that is 0.00024% or of course about 1/416,667 bags blue avg/bag observed : 50.005 green avg/bag observed : 50.002 if you increase the bag size to 1000pcs it seems to happen a bit more frequently (more detailed stats tomorrow, this is considerably slower to run) interesting average probabilities of just getting a 4b1g chain anywhere in a bag of 300 pieces: 0.0382988  |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #34 on: February 11, 2008, 02:25:41 PM » |
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with 500,000 1200-pc bags:
(3 run average)
green/bag: 200.0012
blue/bag: 199.9879
4b1g4b1g chains: 4 (1/125,000 bags)
4x the pieces/bag, and only 3.33 times more likely the occurrence ? i think i need a better random # generator, or more runs.
meh.
4b1g chains: 0.153566 (4.04 times the # in the 300pc bag)
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Clive
Full Metal Jacket
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #35 on: February 11, 2008, 02:31:05 PM » |
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Thanks for that.
Now Blader can die.
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #36 on: February 11, 2008, 02:36:48 PM » |
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LOL. cranking out 1 last big run for the day out of curiosity while I write a paper draft ... 2.5M bags of 1800 pieces each. |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
OfflineGet me the tank!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #37 on: February 11, 2008, 02:58:24 PM » |
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Now Blader can die.
I'll pray for his immortal soul. |
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi
"Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #38 on: February 11, 2008, 03:13:11 PM » |
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2.5M bags of 1800 pcs each.
(1 run only)
greens: 300.0040
blues: 300.0108
4b1g4b1g chains/bag: .0000276 (or 1 per ever 36230 bags)
4b1g chains/bag: 0.230666 (almost 1 per 4 bags ! )
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
OfflineGet me the tank!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #39 on: February 11, 2008, 03:41:10 PM » |
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Unpossible. We haven't consumed remotely close to 36230 bags.
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi
"Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #40 on: February 11, 2008, 03:45:20 PM » |
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decreasing the bag size to 50 pieces with 10,000,000 bags generates results of 1 occurrence per 1.25M bags of the 4b1g4b1g chain.  |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #41 on: February 11, 2008, 03:46:36 PM » |
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Unpossible. We haven't consumed remotely close to 36230 bags.
Is it possible the color distribution in the bag is weighted towards b+g ? Is it possible my random # generator being used sucks ? Is it possible you're very lucky?  |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
OfflineGet me the tank!
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #42 on: February 11, 2008, 03:50:10 PM » |
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi
"Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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Aske
Lederhosen
Karma: 120 Posts: 31405
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #43 on: February 11, 2008, 03:50:49 PM » |
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Unpossible. We haven't consumed remotely close to 36230 bags.
further, it doesn't mean you need to eat 36320 to get 1 occurrence. it means if you want to get say 100 occurences , on average, over time, you'd need to eat 100* 36230 bags (+/- some variance) |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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tdcoly
Tartan Jacket From: The home of misfits, renegades, blowhards, idiots and fools.
Karma: 10 Posts: 1279
OfflineUs Dags
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Re: [sm_scratch]
« Reply #44 on: February 11, 2008, 03:51:21 PM » |
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Unpossible. We haven't consumed remotely close to 36230 bags.
Is it possible the color distribution in the bag is weighted towards b+g ? Is it possible my random # generator being used sucks ? Is it possible you're very lucky? Looks like somebody has way too much time on his hands.  |
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"I'm only speeding 'cause I really have to poop"-as seen on a bumper sticker
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