Aske
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #30 on: March 17, 2008, 07:55:21 PM » |
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forgive me for not finishing this in one part tonight, looks like it will need to be about a 5-10 day series... it's actually proving interesting and cathartic, but very very time-consuming to do.
feel free to ask questions as I go, but please don't overquote/comment it until it's actually finished in a semi-cohesive piece... it will only stop me from getting to the end faster (or at all)
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #31 on: March 17, 2008, 08:01:44 PM » |
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So please pardon my stream of consciousness style, but on to the topic, an examination on reasons why the USA is now permanently reduced out of world superpower status…
Part 1 of ___ ?
We have entered 2008 (really 2005 onwards, but let’s just simply a touch) in the phase of a ‘perfect storm’ of conditions which are now currently and obviously (albeit slowly) manifesting themselves to even the dumbest of ‘merkans: stagflation, accelerating energy scarcity, collapsing housing bubble, non-existant manufacturing capacity, shrinking middle class, elected officials working towards an ‘OWO’, unaffordable health care, ever-decreasing average level of education, looming collapse of social support services, global paradigm shift away from using $ as de facto commodity price unit, a lack of useful natural resources required for 21st century western civilization, a decaying national infrastructure developed around an unsustainable model for civilization, a superstitious love for worshipping the irrational at the expense of logical thought, and of course, last but not least, an ever-growing global contempt towards our nation caused by countless foreign policy blunders. Oh, and we have yet to even mention the possible consequences soon to arise if AGW models are accurate… Nonetheless, let us return our focus to the problem at hand, because if* AGW models are accurate, then the world as a whole is going to die off anyways. So, it has been previously mentioned that I am a doomsayer based on the omnipresent doom-n-gloom media, and yes it is true that some of these ideas are trotted out now and then in the media; however, it is my conjecture that I will discuss them and their implications in many ways joe moran has never heard of from the media, let alone has the mental facilities to process.
… So, one might at this point ask, where to even begin with this “insane” list… and I would venture that the analysis should begin first and foremost at the issue that joe moran seems to like to bitch and moan about the most over the last 2-3 years, that of energy (i.e. gas) prices. While the generation(s) before mine often trumpets out the ‘USA USA We’re #1! We rebuilt Europe after saving their asses in WW2! They owe us, they envy us, LOL, look how they don’t have yards and 2-3 cars per family, hell, the cars they do have are tiny! how do they manage to live like that HAHAHA. My big 500 V8 engine is more power! My penis is big!.”,… with average fuel EROEI now falling well under the value of 5, even these jingotastic ‘meritards are now seeing the principal folly of their ways. Suburbia is not sustainable, massive cities with a distinct lack of public transportation is not sustainable, trans-national product shipment of things that should be locally produced is not sustainable, etc. Everything associated with the ‘ ’merkan model’ for post-WW2 has in fact been a wasteful and idiotic in the scope of long-term planning. Meanwhile, Europeans are the ones laughing now with their readily available public transportation, and their centrally planned cities. With no “real” efforts/progress so far underway to develop alternative energy methods, the real doomsayers are now beginning to think we might have even waited too late: there’s not enough positive (aka >1) EROEI conventional liquid oil out there to sustain us through an infrastructure conversion. Shale and tar sands are a stopgap if you’re willing to completely ruin the national ecostructure and weather patterns. “Energy and ruined earth or death, I pick energy” they say! After all, cheap and readily available energy only gradually built the system we live in now, it will not be happily accepted unless the transition out is the same gradual process. What is readily clear is we will either abandon the NIMBY ‘nukular’ fears or we will not make it out of the next 20 years. Unfortunately, the best fuel is something that is almost exclusively located and mined in Russia. It is also readily clear that if the ITER project fails (this could simply even mean it works but ‘korprit greed prevents its distribution) humanity will severely off itself in resource wars by the end of the century. ALL energy eventually needs to be generated from processes ultimately powered by the atom, and in particularly ultimately from fusion. Nothing else on this planet will keep humanity going more a few millennia at best with current population/lifestyle. So back to gasoline, I’m sure you hear on the news: ethanol this, ethanol that. Where has that gotten us? Domestic ethanol production via corn is an EROEI negative process, and while switchgrass has promise, any farming-based fuel feedstock is easily vulnerable to poisoning/sabotage in the event of resource wars. Compounding this issue is what will be the bioavailable land for crops in this country if AGW models hold ? Oh wait, ok let’s assume someone invents this. Oops! Liquid ethanol will corrode almost all existing domestic distribution pipelines.
So what about solar, surely if you do some reasonably simple math you can see that if we cover 1% of the surface of the earth (tropics really) with some technology that harvests/converts/and transmits* solar energy with a 1% efficient process, we could meet current world energy needs. Sounds like a simple and worthwhile sacrifice right? Well, guess what? There’s no feasible technology even close to a 1% net process that could be brought online on that scale. Solar cells in the 30%+ efficiency range (ignoring conversion/transmission) use the rarest of the rare elements. So what about slightly less rare elements like the news tells you : hydrogen fuel cells! Ooops, not enough known platinum / palladium/ rhodium in the world to run these in a national or global scale let alone- and certainly not much domestically to harvest in the hopes of energy independence- Oh, and oops, say we do use all these nice metals up in fuel cells. No good catalysts left for industrial/etc applications: no chemicals manufacturing! Better hope someone invents fuel cells using abundant elements! (On the positive side, at least people are trying* to do this). We’ll ignore the H2 generation problems as well, as we could theoretically overcome this tech hurdle assuming all other issues are overcome as well. Doom and gloom, right? Well, definitely if we don’t get more serious about tech advancement , current conservation, and future planning towards sustainability. None of this will come cheap though! Developing and implementing a far more diverse energy portfolio starting 20 years ago is what is really needed. Doing it today is obvious. Waiting for tomorrow is suicide. Current funding certainly doesn’t seem to be enough, but let’s assume tomrrow’s is. That brings us to a problem I will address later: ‘merkans and ‘edumakashun. There simply aren’t enough brilliant ‘merkans to solve all these problems, and a good chunk of the few there are will retire within 5 years: we have to hire foreigners. In the past, this meant decreased wages, however with the fall of the worth of the $ (later as well) this might become less of an issue. So why aren’t there ‘merkans to do this ? Clearly public schools don’t cut it in most places in this country as we fall farther and farther behind developed countries of the world in child literacy and math skills. So surely you say, oh well, as long as we can get the best of the best into colleges and just make sure they learn a lot there… except that of course college is simply unaffordable to most ‘merkans.. this problem might slightly equilibrate of course in light of the current economic climate, but even then, what is essentially needed here is a deeper public (vis-à-vis tax) commitment towards making sure the best and brightest can afford to get their advanced edumakashun if they really want people solving this energy problem in the future. It remains to be seen how this however can be accomplished in a stagflationary economy…
...more to come tomorrow and onwards...
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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hobbit
Tartan Jacket From: The Shire
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #32 on: March 17, 2008, 10:08:13 PM » |
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Admittedly after only a paragraph..... Aske, you're a young man that has not experienced all that life and our economic world has to offer yet. I've been there (even though you would not believe it) - its not all you believe it to be right now.
Now I'll get back to reading, but WOW man - thats just grim.
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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hobbit
Tartan Jacket From: The Shire
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #33 on: March 17, 2008, 10:42:28 PM » |
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I just deleted 3 long paragraphs after coming to the understanding that it will make little impact upon your beliefs. Nothing I say apparently has any meaning, contrary to history, living through times such as this, etc. You, my man, have religion Rant on...
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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Uisce Beatha
Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat From: In the Jar
Karma: 116 Posts: 7357
OfflineGet me the tank!
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #34 on: March 18, 2008, 07:39:09 AM » |
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You had me at 'My penis is big!' Errrrmmmm... wait a minute, what I mean to say is...
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"If you're darker than a caramel, Reverend Al speaks for you." - Aasif Mandvi "Well, you can tell by the way I use my walk, I'm a woman's man: no time to talk." - stroh
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Blader
Straitjacket
Karma: 21 Posts: 2075
Offlinevagazzling vajayjays since 1876!!
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #35 on: March 18, 2008, 09:26:54 AM » |
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I see the equities markets today have shrugged off Aske's concerns
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #36 on: March 18, 2008, 03:00:10 PM » |
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I see the equities markets today have shrugged off Aske's concerns
you're right, they did... for today. i'll admit i was wrong on that. wow, it almost gained back what it lost last week! (i'm a big boy and will admit errors when they do actually occur.... I'm also going to LMAO in 6 months when whatever 'creative financing' was used to only have lehman look 'only this bad' is revealed and the process reboots) anyways .....I really didn't think people with that much $ would be dumb enough to buy back in yet with helicopter ben dumping another effective 2-3% inflation hit on the market while there's still a chance of 2-3 more legit 'epic fails' ala bear sterns that could shakeout in the next 1-2 months ahead. notice how while the DJIA went back up 3-4% that energy commodities did too? oops. oh wait, protecting the net worth of the rich is the most important thing here... gotta keep that djia over 12000, no matter what the costs to everyone else. nevermind it's still down over10% in real dollar value since jan 2007, 10% in real dollar value since chimpyco took over (and that's with the optimistic gubmint published inflation #'s), and it's still down a nominal 12% in the last 90 days, and that median wages haven declined 6-10% in that interim whether people realize it yet or not. good thing joe moran is an obedient little merkan and just dumps what little he can into his 401k on whatever his 'advisor' tells him too. the only thing the last week has shown me is insider trading/fraud/privelege of the few is more rampant than i ever imagined. for a bunch of mouthbreathing rails against the evils of socialism, the average 'merkan just got a shiat-ton of risk socialized on them thanks to the bailout collateral assumption. anyways, now back to work i go... so I can post part 2 of my treatise this evening.
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #37 on: March 18, 2008, 03:09:59 PM » |
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I just deleted 3 long paragraphs after coming to the understanding that it will make little impact upon your beliefs. Nothing I say apparently has any meaning, contrary to history, living through times such as this, etc. You, my man, have religion Rant on... hobbit, i've barely gotten started... just touching on one of my perfect storm topics. please however feel free to refer me to ANY time in the history of the post-oil boom western civilization that EROEI values for conventional liquid hydrocarbon production has been consistently this low. please point out how previous generations saw the only viable mega-giants like cantarell , burghan, and ghawar peak out. please point out the massive discoveries of equivalent replacement fields to these. The only people that have lived through what dawns on our horizon were people who lived before oil. as soon as E. Drake the 32nd finds some fusion energy or H2 fuel cells practically bubbling itself out of the ground in Titusville you can officially scratch me off the energy doomsayers list. thanks. i'll be waiting.
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« Last Edit: March 18, 2008, 03:17:15 PM by Aske »
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #38 on: March 18, 2008, 03:21:02 PM » |
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Evidently Mr. Aske's an educated man. Now I really hate him.
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twoiron
Full Metal Jacket From: The Drawing Room
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #39 on: March 18, 2008, 03:31:05 PM » |
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I'm tipping that you'll soon have some Federal Agency watching your every move, if they already aren't, waiting for the right moment to pounce, bundle you into a balck SUV and crawl up your ass with a microscope for posting lies and half truths as percieved by the "State"
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"Nothing says sorry like a warm plate of bacon... or so I'm told"
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hobbit
Tartan Jacket From: The Shire
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #40 on: March 18, 2008, 03:49:40 PM » |
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I just deleted 3 long paragraphs after coming to the understanding that it will make little impact upon your beliefs. Nothing I say apparently has any meaning, contrary to history, living through times such as this, etc. You, my man, have religion Rant on... hobbit, i've barely gotten started... just touching on one of my perfect storm topics. please however feel free to refer me to ANY time in the history of the post-oil boom western civilization that EROEI values for conventional liquid hydrocarbon production has been consistently this low. please point out how previous generations saw the only viable mega-giants like cantarell , burghan, and ghawar peak out. please point out the massive discoveries of equivalent replacement fields to these. The only people that have lived through what dawns on our horizon were people who lived before oil. as soon as E. Drake the 32nd finds some fusion energy or H2 fuel cells practically bubbling itself out of the ground in Titusville you can officially scratch me off the energy doomsayers list. thanks. i'll be waiting. Just a warning, you'll be waiting an awful long time. As I have no idea what any of that *feces* meant, and do not intend to spend 12 hours educating myself on the intricate details of these energy nuances. You'll find me stroh-stupid on the details You can cherry pick arguments that 'we've never seen this before' all you want - there are equal examples of overcoming what we'd never seen before, having resources and methods never used before, and creating markets we've never had before that pull us out of poor times and into prosperous ones. And I don't expect I'll be posting in this one anymore anyway - the train cannot be stopped, so I'll just let it steam ahead.
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #41 on: March 18, 2008, 03:59:22 PM » |
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well, for those that don't know/ want to know, EROEI is simply THE metric of how viable an energy process is. Enerygy Returned on Energy Invested. If you harvest 6 barrels of oil but it takes you 1 barrel to do so, you're effectively gaining 5 net barrels. Sounds sustainable.... except it's not. Because oil fields start at values of 100:1 or so and gradually decline the deeper you go, etc. The majority of 'western civilization' was built up while the value was still largely about 20:1. Oil was cheap and plentiful. All major fields have now pretty much peaked- that is to say the EROEI is falling low enough that they will gradually keep producing less and less until the EROEI is 1 and they are no longer viable- there's no solar powered oil rigs/etc. It doesn't mean we'll run out of oil, just that we'll run out of useful oil. Interestingly, it's not a new concept, just something that has been kept 'hush hush'.
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« Last Edit: March 18, 2008, 04:01:17 PM by Aske »
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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twoiron
Full Metal Jacket From: The Drawing Room
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #42 on: March 18, 2008, 04:01:56 PM » |
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What's your view on Windfarms and Hydro elcectricty??
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"Nothing says sorry like a warm plate of bacon... or so I'm told"
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #43 on: March 18, 2008, 04:02:16 PM » |
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I'm tipping that you'll soon have some Federal Agency watching your every move, if they already aren't, waiting for the right moment to pounce, bundle you into a balck SUV and crawl up your ass with a microscope for posting lies and half truths as percieved by the "State" for the record, I'm just posting info that stroh told me. he's the true menace.
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #44 on: March 18, 2008, 04:03:43 PM » |
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What's your view on Windfarms and Hydro elcectricty??
That they're great and should be used where locally exploitable. Unfortunately, there is no feasible way for them to power entire nations as electricity is not highly transmittable over long distances, and they are not a 'dense' power source, and they are not high enough in EROEI for generating liquid/gas fuels
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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