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[SPOILERS] FIRE OMAR TOMLIN WEEK 16

 
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Clive
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Re: [SPOILERS] FIRE OMAR TOMLIN WEEK 16
« Reply #45 on: December 22, 2008, 07:40:44 AM »

btw, for what it's worth , FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS DVOA analysis of the OL says they are playing essentially the same as last year... no real drop off.
Does their analysis/rating take into account the strength of the pass-rush or run-defense they face each week?  "Essentially the same as last year" can very well mean less success, given their much stronger schedule.

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the falloff in OFF performance is all on bens injuries (mid year) ...
Can you be more specific?  Is it Ben alone?  Tying this in with the previous point: how is O-line performance measured?  Is Ben getting the same amount of time as last year?  Slightly less time, which translates to "essentially the same [offensive line] performance" against better competition?  Receiver problems?  I don't think the RB output is an issue.
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Aske
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Re: [SPOILERS] FIRE OMAR TOMLIN WEEK 16
« Reply #46 on: December 22, 2008, 08:40:16 AM »

btw, for what it's worth , FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS DVOA analysis of the OL says they are playing essentially the same as last year... no real drop off.
Does their analysis/rating take into account the strength of the pass-rush or run-defense they face each week?  "Essentially the same as last year" can very well mean less success, given their much stronger schedule.
That's the ENTIRE point of FO analysis.  Every single play is normalized the to success of the league average and the quality of the opposing defense played.
DVOA = Defense {adjusted} Value Over Average.


Quote
the falloff in OFF performance is all on bens injuries (mid year) ...
Can you be more specific?  Is it Ben alone?  Tying this in with the previous point: how is O-line performance measured?  Is Ben getting the same amount of time as last year?  Slightly less time, which translates to "essentially the same [offensive line] performance" against better competition?  Receiver problems?  I don't think the RB output is an issue.
[/quote]

Again OL stats are measured on a normalized basis to league average and the quality of Def played against.

As such, unless the quality of OL play, OFF play, DEF play, etc...  signficantly rises or falls year over year as a league-wide whole (and hence average) DVOA analysis allows a pretty good way to compare a team year to year in all phases of the game.

DVOA explanation in more depth
http://footballoutsiders.com/info/methods


OFF DVOA (compare year to year)
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2008
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamoff2007

Off Line
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2008
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2007

QBs
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2008
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb2007

RBs
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2008
http://footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb2007


Again, my argument is the OL is playing *essentially* the same mediocre-bad level as last season. The decline of the offense is the sum of the bad (rel to last year) QB and Rushing attack, both of which have had some injuries, but more importantly $.02 are being affected by tragic play calling (and the decision to stick with and not adjust said play calling at halftimes)

Big Ben had a stretch midseason where it was clear his hand/shoulder/etc were preventing him from being able to make throws he *used to* and thought he *could* at the moment (with respect to velocity and cross-body accuracy).  The failure to go away from this is one particularly damning thing i have against Tardrians and Omar, it cost them at least 1 game in that stretch.  Amazingly, they are 11-4, and could easily be 13-2 ...  having been totally dominated in 2 losses and looking very mediocre and 'lucky' at times in winning 13. 

Oh well.
 
« Last Edit: December 22, 2008, 08:45:09 AM by Aske » Logged Return to Top

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Clive
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Re: [SPOILERS] FIRE OMAR TOMLIN WEEK 16
« Reply #47 on: December 22, 2008, 09:23:06 AM »

Let me start off by saying I don't know WTF this DVOA *feces* is, except for what you've posted.  Thanks for the links.

So back to my out-loud thinking ... if the "mediocre-bad" offensive line is playing against even better teams this year, then that should mean Roethlisberger is getting even less time before he's got to start sliding/running/ducking/fighting.  As I watch games this year (and happily, I've actually gotten to see maybe half of them!), I get the sense every game that Ben just seems to have very little time to look things over once the ball's been snapped.(*)  Especially relative to other QBs I watch in other games, or even the PIT opponent (speaking overall).  The dude just can't think as clearly (and we're talking degrees, which I think make or break NFL-level quarterbacks) when he's constantly awaiting the hit/grab, especially from the blindside.

I'd like to see PIT run more quick-release pass plays, especially using Miller.  But Heath Miller is NOT Wes Welker -- the quickness to be immediately open probably is not there.  And PIT is having to hold back Miller or a RB part of the time to help out with protection.

(*) -- On the other end, I'm reminded of Brady in the pocket last year, who had more time than Angus Podgorny at Wimbledon.  (Here at about 6:25 in.)
« Last Edit: December 22, 2008, 09:25:56 AM by Clive » Logged Return to Top
Aske
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Re: [SPOILERS] FIRE OMAR TOMLIN WEEK 16
« Reply #48 on: December 22, 2008, 09:49:06 AM »

What the DVOA stats say is the line , despite playing against better defenses, is actually playing as well as it did last year. I think this has to do with Stapleton and the Center being upgrades over last year, while Kemoeatu is a downgrade (slight) from Faneca
 
Bens sack/fumble problems come from a couple of areas:
1- the line routinely whiffs on block schemes against blitzes- that is people come completely untouched.
2- the line struggles mightily against outside-in stunts/twists  ... routinely getting responsibilities confused and having double teams on weak edge rushers and singleteams or RBs against power insider rushers.
3- he does still try tooooo hard to make the hero play because he knows if he throws it away, he's just gonna repeat the process again the next down.
4- they don't run quick hitting plays to compensate for the weakness of the Oline, falling back on the ego and "accustomed to" plays that are slow developing and ... hence... ineffective (as Ben or RB gets creamed).  They had* this figured out last year. I don't get it.
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