Fuzzy
Full Metal Jacket From: Island of Misfit Toys
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[Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« on: April 30, 2009, 07:40:08 PM » |
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I hope this guy's track record stays intact. http://ac360.blogs.cnn.co...recession-is-almost-over/One of America’s most reliable economic forecasters says the current recession – the longest in half a century - will end this year, possibly as early as this summer.
Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), was one of the first to declare that the US was in a recession. Now he’s one of the first to say its ending. ECRI, he says, is the research group in the world that studies business cycle recessions and recoveries for a living, and has a near-perfect record of predicting. They do it by crunching various pieces of data and creating “leading indicators” which show where the economy is headed
The indicator that looks the furthest into the future actually started showing signs of future growth as early as last November, as the worst of the credit crisis started to ease. Another indicator, with a shorter lead-time into the future, started pointing toward growth in early December. Both indicators have showed steady growth since then and that, says Achuthan, is enough data for him to say this recession is ending. That’s because, over the last 75 years, when those indicators turn up, the recession ends within four months. No exceptions, says Achuthan.
Achuthan points out that these same indicators predicted the current recession, by turning downward BEFORE the recession began. Specifically, Achuthan notes, his leading indicators turned downward in Early June, 2007; the current recession “officially” began in December of that year. Because of that, Achuthan was able to announce that the US was in recession some NINE MONTHS before the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the official arbiter of recessions, did.
But don’t buy the party supplies just yet. The end of a recession simply means that things will start becoming “less negative.” A top adviser to President Obama says the economy will again shrink in the 2nd quarter of this year – that’s the period we’re in now. But Achuthan declaration doesn’t really counter that – he doesn’t think recovery will start until the 3rd quarter – sometime after June. But there is always the other side of the coin: Achuthan worries that during a recession, we all become more productive, by working with less (we fill in when our colleagues are laid-off, for instance), and so you don’t need to hire all of those people back for the economy to recover. The danger of that is that many millions of people who have lost their jobs may not get them back in this economy – and that can create great disparity in society – “haves” who have more; “have nots” who have less. |
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"You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose."
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #1 on: April 30, 2009, 07:51:48 PM » |
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I hope this guy's track record stays intact. http://ac360.blogs.cnn.co...recession-is-almost-over/One of America’s most reliable economic forecasters says the current recession – the longest in half a century - will end this year, possibly as early as this summer.
Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), was one of the first to declare that the US was in a recession. Now he’s one of the first to say its ending. ECRI, he says, is the research group in the world that studies business cycle recessions and recoveries for a living, and has a near-perfect record of predicting. They do it by crunching various pieces of data and creating “leading indicators” which show where the economy is headed
The indicator that looks the furthest into the future actually started showing signs of future growth as early as last November, as the worst of the credit crisis started to ease. Another indicator, with a shorter lead-time into the future, started pointing toward growth in early December. Both indicators have showed steady growth since then and that, says Achuthan, is enough data for him to say this recession is ending. That’s because, over the last 75 years, when those indicators turn up, the recession ends within four months. No exceptions, says Achuthan.
Achuthan points out that these same indicators predicted the current recession, by turning downward BEFORE the recession began. Specifically, Achuthan notes, his leading indicators turned downward in Early June, 2007; the current recession “officially” began in December of that year. Because of that, Achuthan was able to announce that the US was in recession some NINE MONTHS before the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the official arbiter of recessions, did.
But don’t buy the party supplies just yet. The end of a recession simply means that things will start becoming “less negative.” A top adviser to President Obama says the economy will again shrink in the 2nd quarter of this year – that’s the period we’re in now. But Achuthan declaration doesn’t really counter that – he doesn’t think recovery will start until the 3rd quarter – sometime after June. But there is always the other side of the coin: Achuthan worries that during a recession, we all become more productive, by working with less (we fill in when our colleagues are laid-off, for instance), and so you don’t need to hire all of those people back for the economy to recover. The danger of that is that many millions of people who have lost their jobs may not get them back in this economy – and that can create great disparity in society – “haves” who have more; “have nots” who have less. TOO LAZY AND DRUNK TO READ THAT RIGHT NOW was he calling the recession back when I was? (and which has since been essentially confirmed?) If not... *snooze* *will revisit tomorrow morning* |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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Fuzzy
Full Metal Jacket From: Island of Misfit Toys
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2009, 07:55:30 PM » |
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I hope this guy's track record stays intact. http://ac360.blogs.cnn.co...recession-is-almost-over/One of America’s most reliable economic forecasters says the current recession – the longest in half a century - will end this year, possibly as early as this summer.
Lakshman Achuthan, Managing Director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), was one of the first to declare that the US was in a recession. Now he’s one of the first to say its ending. ECRI, he says, is the research group in the world that studies business cycle recessions and recoveries for a living, and has a near-perfect record of predicting. They do it by crunching various pieces of data and creating “leading indicators” which show where the economy is headed
The indicator that looks the furthest into the future actually started showing signs of future growth as early as last November, as the worst of the credit crisis started to ease. Another indicator, with a shorter lead-time into the future, started pointing toward growth in early December. Both indicators have showed steady growth since then and that, says Achuthan, is enough data for him to say this recession is ending. That’s because, over the last 75 years, when those indicators turn up, the recession ends within four months. No exceptions, says Achuthan.
Achuthan points out that these same indicators predicted the current recession, by turning downward BEFORE the recession began. Specifically, Achuthan notes, his leading indicators turned downward in Early June, 2007; the current recession “officially” began in December of that year. Because of that, Achuthan was able to announce that the US was in recession some NINE MONTHS before the National Bureau of Economic Research, which is the official arbiter of recessions, did.
But don’t buy the party supplies just yet. The end of a recession simply means that things will start becoming “less negative.” A top adviser to President Obama says the economy will again shrink in the 2nd quarter of this year – that’s the period we’re in now. But Achuthan declaration doesn’t really counter that – he doesn’t think recovery will start until the 3rd quarter – sometime after June. But there is always the other side of the coin: Achuthan worries that during a recession, we all become more productive, by working with less (we fill in when our colleagues are laid-off, for instance), and so you don’t need to hire all of those people back for the economy to recover. The danger of that is that many millions of people who have lost their jobs may not get them back in this economy – and that can create great disparity in society – “haves” who have more; “have nots” who have less. TOO LAZY AND DRUNK TO READ THAT RIGHT NOW was he calling the recession back when I was? (and which has since been essentially confirmed?) If not... *snooze* *will revisit tomorrow morning* Hard to say. I don't remember you ever not calling the U.S. in recession.   |
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« Last Edit: April 30, 2009, 07:58:02 PM by Fuzzy »
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"You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose."
From Oh the Places You'll Go, by Dr. Seuss (Theodor Geisel)
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
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OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #3 on: April 30, 2009, 07:58:21 PM » |
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TOO LAZY AND DRUNK TO READ THAT RIGHT NOW
Hack. There can be only one. |
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Aske
Lederhosen
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #4 on: April 30, 2009, 08:08:12 PM » |
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TOO LAZY AND DRUNK TO READ THAT RIGHT NOW
Hack. There can be only one. It's Noon A.S.T. beeeyotches. |
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century. -- Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka |
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birdymaker
Straitjacket From: a third world country in the making
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #5 on: May 01, 2009, 04:26:53 AM » |
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TOO LAZY AND DRUNK TO READ THAT RIGHT NOW
Hack. There can be only one. It's Noon A.S.T. beeeyotches. It's 5:00 somewhere. |
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women are like tornados. In the beginning there's a lot of sucking and blowing. In the end, the car's gone, the house is gone..
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birdymaker
Straitjacket From: a third world country in the making
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #6 on: May 01, 2009, 06:16:59 AM » |
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[birdymaker climbs on soapbox]  Depends on who's recession he's talking about, wall streets or the average Joe's. They are in fact very different things. As are peoples definition of when the recession is over. The indicator that looks the furthest into the future actually started showing signs of future growth as early as last November, as the worst of the credit crisis started to ease. Another indicator, with a shorter lead-time into the future, started pointing toward growth in early December. I notice first off that they fail to mention what these indicators are, imagine that. Recession still has grip on the economy First-quarter GDP shrinks at worse-than-expected 6.1 percent pace. Instead, the economy ended up performing nearly as bad as it had in the final three months of last year when it logged the worst slide in a quarter-century, contracting at a 6.3 percent pace. Nervous consumers played a prominent role in that dismal showing as they ratcheted back spending in the face of rising unemployment, falling home values and shrinking nest eggs. Here's the reality of the situation. Home prices are still sinking, foreclosures are still escalating, bankruptcy's are skyrocketing. People are still losing their jobs, the people falling off the unemployment rolls are still not finding jobs or severely under employed. Companies in virtually every industry are still laying people off. Semiconductor orders for march were down 30% because nobody is purchasing electronics that doesn't have to. Thank god for the tax refund bounce or the numbers would be off the chart. The Dow is climbing mainly due to banks reporting profits, when in fact they are surviving on taxpayer money and doubling interest rates on credit cards to try and make it look like something good is happening. Companies are meeting targets that were revised down for consecutive quarters. Only in the make believe world that is wall street can a company lose 500 million dollars in consecutive quarters and their stock price go up because they  beat expectations . Chrysler and Gm have announced 30,000 new permanent job cuts in the last week and over 20 permanent plant closings between the 2 of them. Chrysler closed all their plants effective yesterday afternoon for the duration of the bankruptcy and all of Gm's plants will be closed for up to 3 months this summer, provided they make it that long which i doubt they will  . American axle announced that they are closing their United States operations and moving the whole mess to Mexico after winning Major wage concessions last year.Totaled that's another 205,000 people out of work and not spending money. Now draw the above mentioned items out to the supplier level and small business and community level and you have literally another 750,000 people losing their jobs at least temporarily most permanently. No Gm or Chrysler for months will crush a lot of the suppliers and small businesses. Should GM file for bankruptcy expect these numbers to go up drastically. I would really like to know what this guys indicators are. Here's mine from the above linked article, All told, the economy logged its worst six-month performance since the late 1950s. Sorry for the rant.   [birdymaker climbs off soapbox]   |
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women are like tornados. In the beginning there's a lot of sucking and blowing. In the end, the car's gone, the house is gone..
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Fuzzy
Full Metal Jacket From: Island of Misfit Toys
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #7 on: May 01, 2009, 06:50:16 AM » |
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[birdymaker climbs on soapbox] [birdymaker climbs off soapbox] He did basically address the unemployment problem. One that, even if the economy recovers, becomes a more pressing problem for the Messiah: But there is always the other side of the coin: Achuthan worries that during a recession, we all become more productive, by working with less (we fill in when our colleagues are laid-off, for instance), and so you don’t need to hire all of those people back for the economy to recover. The danger of that is that many millions of people who have lost their jobs may not get them back in this economy – and that can create great disparity in society – “haves” who have more; “have nots” who have less. Again, I just hope he's right about the recession no matter what indicators he uses. We need things to start to get better. |
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"You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose."
From Oh the Places You'll Go, by Dr. Seuss (Theodor Geisel)
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gleek
Flak Jacket
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #8 on: May 01, 2009, 08:13:44 AM » |
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The funny thing about high unemployment is that it tends to benefit businesses in other sectors. Other manufacturing companies can now cherry pick the best of the newly unemployed at rock bottom prices.
I think these cycles of mass unemployment are almost necessary to keep wages as a whole in check. However, a huge problem is that salaries of upper-level management and executives don't seem to follow these cycles.
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Woman, open the door, don't let it sting. I wanna breathe that fire again.
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #9 on: May 01, 2009, 08:54:48 AM » |
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hate!
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hobbit
Tartan Jacket From: The Shire
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #10 on: May 01, 2009, 09:23:50 AM » |
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[birdymaker climbs on soapbox] Depends on who's recession he's talking about, wall streets or the average Joe's. They are in fact very different things. As are peoples definition of when the recession is over. True. The economist consensus is that the 'economy' starts to recover in the fall - i.e., no more negative GDP growth. And yes, that's usually just the market (wall street). All of the other factors (unemployment, housing, et al) lag a bit. So it does depend upon what you're looking for, a job or a better 401k statement. |
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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hobbit
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #11 on: May 01, 2009, 09:30:43 AM » |
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The funny thing about high unemployment is that it tends to benefit businesses in other sectors. Other manufacturing companies can now cherry pick the best of the newly unemployed at rock bottom prices.
I think these cycles of mass unemployment are almost necessary to keep wages as a whole in check. However, a huge problem is that salaries of upper-level management and executives don't seem to follow these cycles.
True, salaries of upper management are usually unaffected. But their earnings are greatly affected by bonus figures (lack of). Sure there are some that get 'guaranteed' bonuses that we all bitch about, but that's the exception to the rule not the norm. It does mean they usually recover their income levels faster though. |
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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hobbit
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #12 on: May 01, 2009, 09:32:50 AM » |
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was he calling the recession back when I was? (and which has since been essentially confirmed?)
Hard to say. I don't remember you ever not calling the U.S. in recession. Beat me to it  |
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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hobbit
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #13 on: May 01, 2009, 09:35:41 AM » |
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Anyway - yes, the 'economy' probably starts to recover later this year. But it may not start to 'feel' like it until next year.
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I've gone to find myself. If I get back before I return, keep me here.
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stroh
Sleeveless Hoodie From: Impact Crater Springs, CA
Karma: 155 Posts: 16135
OfflineWe're doomed!
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Re: [Politics/Econ] Recession over?
« Reply #14 on: May 02, 2009, 07:59:05 AM » |
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They're closing down the textile mill across the railroad tracks
Foreman says these jobs are going boys and they ain't coming back........
Love,
Uisce
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