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Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on

 
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Fuzzy
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Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« on: December 10, 2010, 12:13:49 PM »

http://www.startribune.co...yc:aUac8HEaDiaMDCinchO7DU

Latest Storm Headlines

* This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm for much of Minnesota since Halloween, 1991.

* Potential for 1-2 feet of snow Saturday, with 2-5 foot drifts during the PM hours.

* Close to blizzard criteria - best chance of white-out conditions south/west of the metro area.

* Winter Storm Warning for much of Minnesota/Wisconsin. Blizzard Watch posted for southwestern MN.

* Get your errands/shopping done today, snow arrives late evening, between 8 and 10 pm, snow gets heavier and steadier as the night goes on - should be snowing heavily when we wake up Saturday morning.

* Conditions get worse as the day goes on tomorrow as winds increase and snow accumulates (even on the freeways and interstates). Temperatures will fall through the teens into the single digits - making it a light, powdery snow - prone to blowing and drifting.

* Wind chills by Saturday night dip down to -20 to -35, extreme danger zone.

* Highs hold below zero on Sunday, but travel conditions should gradually improve. Temperatures rebound into the 20s by the middle of next week - it won't stay frigid for long.

Winter Storm Warnings - Blizzard Watch. Here is the latest from the NWS in Chanhassen. The watch has been upgraded to a warning, meaning its imminent - it's coming. Not sure how we see anything less than 8" of powder. At the upper end: 15-20" amounts can't be ruled out.

A band of 12-20" setting up directly over the metro (latest NAM/WRF printing out the best chance of 20" just north/west of MSP, closer to Monticello, Rockford and Hutchinson. Not sure how we see anything less than a foot at this point, and the final numbers may be closer to 15-20" for parts of the metro. The problem: at some point all this preoccupation with inches won't matter. The snow will blowing and drifting so much you won't be able to get an accurate measurement Saturday PM hours.

Latest Numbers. Here is why I believe tomorrow's storm may result in the most snow for MSP since the Halloween Superstorm of 1991. The most reliable model, the NAM/WRF, is printing out 1.44" liquid. Assuming an AVERAGE snow/rain ratio of 15/1 during the life of the storm (starting out close to 10/1 tomorrow morning, could be closer to 25/1 at the end of the storm when temperatures fall below 10 F) I come up with 15-20" of accumulation. Not sure how we see anything less than 8". Now that all the models are coming into alignment our confidence level is growing. Yes, it's going to be a VERY significant pile of snow - winds of 27 mph (sustained) predicted for the dinner hour Saturday,  meaning surface winds may be in the 30-35 mph range, very close to blizzard criteria. Even if it isn't a full-fledged blizzard in the metro, I do expect blizzard conditions, especially south/west of MSP.

Snowy Trends. The models are not only coming into alignment (the continuity we're looking for), but every successive model run gets snowier and snowier. The older runs were hinting at 9-10" of snow - the latest runs are in the 18-19" range. I expect to see some 2-5 foot drifts by Saturday night.

How Much? Here is the latest model run, showing a band of 15-28" extending from the MSP meetro area into much of northern Wisconsin and the U.P. of Michigan. This band may still shift (slightly) over the next 12-24 hours, but again, I just don't see how we see anything less than a foot in the metro area. Frankly, as time goes on I'm starting to think final amounts may be closer to 2 feet. We'll see, but this has all the hallmarks of a major blizzard for much of the Upper Midwest, something we haven't seen for nearly 2 decades.
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Fuzzy
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #1 on: December 10, 2010, 12:15:24 PM »

 Bangs Head Yield

Looks like a stop at the liquor store on the way home and a weekend inside.  Drink
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"You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself any direction you choose."
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dystopia
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #2 on: December 10, 2010, 04:32:05 PM »

Ah, that's why I keep reading grim weather warnings about the Patriots-Bears game.

I remember these huge snowstorm warnings as a kid, and they always seemed as big or bigger than the hype leading up to them.
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MFAWG
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2010, 06:10:47 PM »

Shoot, here they would evacuate the city for a foot of snow! They freak out if it rains hard. In Seattle.

That said, it HAS been raining like hell, and more to come. Probably get some SERIOUS flooding before the weekend is out.
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. -- Teddy Roosevelt
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #4 on: December 10, 2010, 07:09:42 PM »

E-A-G-L-E! rejoices.
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2010, 06:06:29 AM »

Ah, that's why I keep reading grim weather warnings about the Patriots-Bears game.

I remember these huge snowstorm warnings as a kid, and they always seemed as big or bigger than the hype leading up to them.


Well, the latest here (via premium weather subscipt that is generally pretty good only 1-2 days out) is that between now and gametime there will be about 6" accumulation from the lake radiating down to 3-4" out where we are.... but tomorrow come gametime and through the game there will be persistent 30-40 mph winds, real* temps dropping from 10 to 3, and windchills dropping from -7 to -20.

Should be interesting.  I know Bieber and the Pats O is turned into a more checkdown dink and dunk attack, but even then, that much wind and a "heavier" feeling ball might make for some LOLs.  Of course Captain Emo is going to stink it up if he tries to throw it.   Might end up seeing a total of 70 handoffs between the two teams  Shocked

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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2010, 07:12:21 PM »


* This has the potential to be the biggest snowstorm for much of Minnesota since Halloween, 1991.

I remember that blizzard.  For as little as I was at age 5, it seemed that it was above my head before it was halfway done.  But that was a child's perspective.  Still, that was a really nice blizzard.  Cool

Btw, I knew I'd find a thread like this here. Smiley
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2010, 07:29:57 PM »

E-A-G-L-E! rejoices.

Indeed I do!  We haven't had a snowfall like this in sooooooo long, and I've really, really missed it.  Chelsea & Garrett haven't seen a winter like this in their young lifespan.  Poor little siblings have really missed out!

We still don't have a snowblower, so Dad, Kev, and I have been shoveling much of the day.  (They let me sleep during the 3 am & 6 am shoveling shifts, so they've done more shoveling than I have.)  If we weren't out there every few hours, we'd be positively buried! Snow Cool  We have an ~8'+ pile of snow in our front yard from just half of the driveway, and 2 piles in the backyard as well.  Our Nativity scene that we put out 2 weeks ago is now under snow.  Can't see the sheep or the camels.  The kneeling wise man is almost completely covered, and everything else is more than half covered.  Except for the angel hanging from the tree.  It will take another 8' of snow before that one is covered.  Tomorrow's job will be to try to dig them out, then dust them off.

One of the things I love about Minnesnowta, besides the snow, is that we're still up and running even wit all this white stuff coming our way.  I suppose tomorrow's football game might be canceled, though, if the Giants can't get up here.  But hey, they're a NY team.  They're used to everything shutting down if they get even an inch of snow....  They don't know what they're missing.

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
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He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain that which he cannot lose.  - Jim Elliot

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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2010, 07:42:14 PM »


One of the things I love about Minnesnowta, besides the snow, is that we're still up and running even wit all this white stuff coming our way.  I suppose tomorrow's football game might be canceled, though, if the Giants can't get up here.  But hey, they're a NY team.  They're used to everything shutting down if they get even an inch of snow....  They don't know what they're missing.

Scratch that.  It's now scheduled as a Monday night game...  Think they can make it up here by then?




In all seriousness, I'd rather they be safe than sorry.
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dystopia
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2010, 10:00:29 PM »

Ah, I was wondering if they were going to do that to keep the fans safe.

I wish ESPN would switch from the Ravens-Texans to Giants-Vikes.
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MFAWG
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2010, 11:36:25 PM »

Ah, I was wondering if they were going to do that to keep the fans safe.

I wish ESPN would switch from the Ravens-Texans to Giants-Vikes.

Heard it's going to be local broadcast only.

Meanwhile, I seem to have misplaced my Ark plans, and we might need them. We've had a steady downpour since about 11am, and it's supposed to stay that way through tomorrow.

It rains alot here, but it usually doesn't rain hard for more than a couple of hoyrs.
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. -- Teddy Roosevelt
Aske
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #11 on: December 12, 2010, 06:20:19 AM »

http://kstp.com/news/stories/S1878695.shtml?cat=1
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Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
Aske
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2010, 06:21:24 AM »

http://news.blogs.cnn.com...es-metrodome-roof/?hpt=T2
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Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
gleek
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2010, 08:35:59 AM »


Deflated like the Viqueens' hopes after week 7.
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gleek
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Re: Hey stroh! Look what you're missing out on
« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2010, 08:36:25 AM »


Collapsed like the Viqueens' hopes after week 11.
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Woman, open the door, don't let it sting. I wanna breathe that fire again.
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