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lol @ "luck" @ aske pwns self

 
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Aske
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lol @ "luck" @ aske pwns self
« on: July 20, 2007, 10:08:05 AM »

playing some clown heads up who goes all in (he had been shown bluffing a lot previously)

i had AK so i called .

he flips over QQ.

when I hit a K on the river he starts filling the chat dialogue with 'lucky son of a bitch, i hope you die mother*fudge*er, etc'

i thought about trying to explain pot odds and that AK is a 2/1 favorite heads up against QQ  but decided to just laugh really hard and hope someday this fool tries playing in a real casino game or something

« Last Edit: July 20, 2007, 02:59:11 PM by Aske » Logged Return to Top

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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
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1puttpar
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2007, 10:26:26 AM »

That's the inherent problem with "free" poker.  Since there is no real risk, too many bozos that have no clue either play in hands they have no business being in, or get pissed off like your recent experience.
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stroh
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #2 on: July 20, 2007, 11:05:23 AM »

lucky son-of-a-bitch!  die mother*fudge*er!
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hobbit
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #3 on: July 20, 2007, 11:20:39 AM »

...and that AK is a 2/1 favorite heads up against QQ

O'rly?  Wanna play for real money?  Cheesy

I don't know what was in the pot, but you were not a 2/1 favorite on the hand itself (which is really all that matters IMHO).  You were actually on the back side (but not by much) of the coin toss on this one.  Still a good call, and not really lucky at all - the guy just doesn't know the game and lost his head.

And its not just free money games that have idiots either - I've run into some real fools giving me their real money  Grin

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Aske
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #4 on: July 20, 2007, 11:26:51 AM »

...and that AK is a 2/1 favorite heads up against QQ

O'rly?  Wanna play for real money?  Cheesy

I don't know what was in the pot, but you were not a 2/1 favorite on the hand itself (which is really all that matters IMHO).  You were actually on the back side (but not by much) of the coin toss on this one.  Still a good call, and not really lucky at all - the guy just doesn't know the game and lost his head.

And its not just free money games that have idiots either - I've run into some real fools giving me their real money  Grin



every book i've ever read puts AK @ 65% to hit against QQ  headsup
 Don't Know
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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
gleek
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #5 on: July 20, 2007, 11:28:50 AM »

...and that AK is a 2/1 favorite heads up against QQ

O'rly?  Wanna play for real money?  Cheesy

I don't know what was in the pot, but you were not a 2/1 favorite on the hand itself (which is really all that matters IMHO).  You were actually on the back side (but not by much) of the coin toss on this one.  Still a good call, and not really lucky at all - the guy just doesn't know the game and lost his head.

And its not just free money games that have idiots either - I've run into some real fools giving me their real money  Grin

He would have a 3-1 edge on getting a card that actually improves his hand, right? (3 Ks + 3 As vs. 2 Qs) But there are many more cards that won't improve either hand, so the QQ hand is still at an advantage. I don't know by how much though. I stink at probability.
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stroh
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #6 on: July 20, 2007, 11:43:28 AM »


I don't know by how much though. I stink at probability.

Probabilities are easy.  Every thing is 50/50.  Either an event occurs, or it does not.


It really is that simple.
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gleek
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #7 on: July 20, 2007, 11:53:45 AM »


I don't know by how much though. I stink at probability.

Probabilities are easy.  Every thing is 50/50.  Either an event occurs, or it does not.


It really is that simple.

G-damn, stroh! You are a freaking genius! You'll probably get a karma for that one. Cheesy
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Uisce Beatha
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #8 on: July 20, 2007, 12:38:28 PM »


I don't know by how much though. I stink at probability.

Probabilities are easy.  Every thing is 50/50.  Either an event occurs, or it does not.


It really is that simple.

G-damn, stroh! You are a freaking genius! You'll probably get a karma for that one. Cheesy

Or not...

Proving his point.
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MP
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #9 on: July 20, 2007, 12:54:54 PM »

playing some clown heads up who goes all in (he had been shown bluffing a lot previously)

i had AK so i called .

he flips over QQ.

when I hit a K on the river he starts filling the chat dialogue with 'lucky son of a bitch, i hope you die mother*fudge*er, etc'

i thought about trying to explain pot odds and that AK is a 2/1 favorite heads up against QQ  but decided to just laugh really hard and hope someday this fool tries playing in a real casino game or something


It's actually pretty straight up.  Q's have maybe 55/45 on you.  Anytime I have Q's in a casino game, an A or K always pops up.  Or whats worse, one time i was all in head to head with 8's and an 8 came out on the river.   Disgusted
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MP
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #10 on: July 20, 2007, 12:58:20 PM »

damn that was a good guess

56.99% QQ
42.66% AK (offsuit)

53.59% QQ
46.02% AK (suited)

53.88% QQ (has your suit)
45.65% AK (suited)

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem
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Aske
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #11 on: July 20, 2007, 02:53:30 PM »

guess i've been read the wrong books (or remembered it wrong)
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Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
Aske
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #12 on: July 20, 2007, 02:56:52 PM »

actually, now that I think about it 45% makes total sense

assume 10000000s of 'random decks'
6 cards really improve me
that means 1/8 cards on average helps me.  i get 5 shots at em.  that's 63% of hitting

for him, 2 cards really improve him
that means 1/24 cards on average, 5 shots, about 20%.   if he does hit, there's about a 5% chance I make a straight to beat his set.   so about  (63-20+5) approx 45%  (not accounting for any flushes)


why didn't I just reason it through before spouting off what I read somewhere.
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« Last Edit: July 20, 2007, 03:01:26 PM by Aske » Logged Return to Top

Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
Aske
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Re: lol @ "luck"
« Reply #13 on: July 20, 2007, 02:58:15 PM »

damn that was a good guess

56.99% QQ
42.66% AK (offsuit)

53.59% QQ
46.02% AK (suited)

53.88% QQ (has your suit)
45.65% AK (suited)

http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_odds/texas_holdem


thanks, neat link.
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Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
Aske
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Re: lol @ "luck" @ aske pwns self
« Reply #14 on: July 20, 2007, 03:00:09 PM »

anyways, factoring in the blinds and the all in, the pot odds were just over 6 to 5, so the call was indeed justified.
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Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
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