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U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]

 
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Aske
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U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« on: March 17, 2008, 12:00:58 PM »

so, 1st of all, I'll go buy the prize right now while I can still afford it  Devil  oh wait, it can't be a Golf Galaxy gift card since we don't have them here anymore.  hmmm, maybe we can pick something else out-   


other than that small issue,  here's the deal let's at least try to laugh a bit to distract ourselves from how comically bad the $ and 'konomee situation is right now.


simply post what you think these things will cost/value (in U$D) at the last day of 2008.


Gasoline (1 gallon RBOB future delivery )
Oil (1 Barrel WTI future delivery )
Euro (1 currency unit )
DJIA (index value)
Nasdaq (index value)
Gold (1 troy oz)
Platinum (1 troy oz)
Copper (1 pound)
Corn (1 future bushel)
Wheat (1 KCB future bushel)
30 Year Mortgage Interest rate





to measure your score , we will simply calculate the % error per item .  whoever has the lowest average % error will win.
Example, you say Gasoline will be $1.00.  it is $1.02   you have a 2% error for that item.  you say oil will be $10, oil is $11, you have a 10% error.  If it ended there, your average error is 6%   




entries due Noon EST of  March 31st, 2008


« Last Edit: March 17, 2008, 12:19:11 PM by Aske » Logged Return to Top

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Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
stroh
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2008, 12:06:40 PM »

Cool.  I'm in.

(Gas is National Average?  Reported by?)
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Aske
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2008, 12:10:00 PM »

Cool.  I'm in.

(Gas is National Average?  Reported by?)

stroh,  everything except platinum will be priced off data from bloomberg.com

I'll throw in one more component while we're at it: the average 30 year mortgage interest rate.


if anyone has a real preference for which platinum product we use, i'm open to suggestion- i was just going to take it off http://www.metalprices.com/ for the COMEX

« Last Edit: March 17, 2008, 12:13:49 PM by Aske » Logged Return to Top

Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
gleek
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2008, 12:11:42 PM »

Why don't you list the current prices (e.g. Friday's closing prices) for reference? Or at least provide links to the sites that you'll use for the price quotes to determine the winner. Also, for the commodities, are the prices going to be for contracts that expire in December 2008?
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Aske
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2008, 12:15:43 PM »

Why don't you list the current prices (e.g. Friday's closing prices) for reference? Or at least provide links to the sites that you'll use for the price quotes to determine the winner. Also, for the commodities, are the prices going to be for contracts that expire in December 2008?

see my newest post,  everything futures related will be main option trading for delivery in 2009 as of close of business on 12/31/2008  as reported for featured products as easily viewed comprehensively on bloomberg (excluding platinum, which they don't list)


commodities
http://www.bloomberg.com/...commodities/cfutures.html

equity indices
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/wei.html

currencies
http://www.bloomberg.com/...rkets/currencies/fxc.html

rates
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/rates/index.html
« Last Edit: March 17, 2008, 12:20:46 PM by Aske » Logged Return to Top

Quote
Russia has invaded a sovereign neighboring state and threatens a democratic government elected by its people. Such an action is unacceptable in the 21st century.
--  Chimpy McFlightsuit, CEO of Bu$hco Industries of 'Merka
stroh
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2008, 12:22:51 PM »

Why do you hate frozen orange juice concentrate?
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gleek
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2008, 12:24:45 PM »

Clarence.Beeks.surrenders

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MFAWG
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2008, 12:32:33 PM »

I just got done listening to the POTUS. Everythings fine, and I have been assured by Limbaugh that even if it's not, it's all The Libruls fault.
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The things that will destroy America are prosperity at any price, peace at any price, safety first instead of duty first, the love of soft living and the get rich quick theory of life. -- Teddy Roosevelt
Uisce Beatha
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2008, 03:09:16 PM »

That's very complicated stuff.  I won't do well with that. 

I do feel comfortable predicting a 2008 comeback for Blind Melon though.
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1puttpar
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Re: U$D/economic instability prediction contest [Politics/Religion]
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2008, 05:36:14 PM »

That's very complicated stuff.  I won't do well with that. 

I do feel comfortable predicting a 2008 comeback for Blind Melon though.

 Rolling Laugh at you Rolling  +1
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