Monday-Tuesday Wall St. BloodBath Imminent [Politics/Religion]

Oh deary me, you're right.  Thank god you're here.

I did forget to account for that 1/1,000,000 chance that we are *fudge*ed once and for all.  I forgot to account for the 1/100 chance that recovery does not come on 'pretty quickly'.  Please accept my apologies for so grossly misusing the term.


So, were you just picking fly *feces* out of pepper there, or is it your supposition that we are truly '*fudge*ed once and for all'?  And if so, are you packing your bags for Europe?

I will post a treatise on why i think we're *fudge*ed once and for all later tonight, and trust me, 90%+ of it is 'stuff' that you don't hear about from the 'news'. 

as for your post to gleek about europe, i can only wish we could get out of here right now
 

I remember the "*fudge*ed once and for all" chants in '74, the "78-'79 recession, when I started college in the early-mid '80's, when the stock market collapsed in 1987, etc. etc. etc.

I'm not sure the good old days were as good as people remember. Economies suck, they get better, they suck, they get better. Fleeing to Europe isn't the answer.

Damn, Lehman Brothers down 45% today.  Craziness. 

Dude, chill out on the "if you don't like this country, get the *fudge* out" bit. I'm not the one saying we're "*fudge*ed once and for all". We might be, or we might not be. I have no idea, but we, as a country, are economically in a pretty *feces*ty situation right now. Thinking that we can overcome this "pretty quickly" is largely dependent on what this country has been able to do in the recent past. Such assumption presumes that the current situation is not a unique one and one that we have the resources and know-how to overcome. There's a lot of uncertainty right now, and I'd like to hear somebody offer a little more than "We have the greatest economy in the world, and we've always been able to recover quickly. And...San Dimas High School Football Rules!".

Recessions always feel bad, and it's easy to be really negative while we spiral into one.

To me, this one feels worse for two reasons.  First, because we are engaged in two pointless and extremely draining military quagmires.  Second, because we are nearing the end of a long administration that has not accomplished anything domestically, and in many areas has rolled back the clock, which has been led by a complete and utter moron.

But I don't share Aske's doom and gloom, not even remotely. 

I view this as a necessary market correction.  In this instance, its largely led by a shakeout of the irrational exuberance in the financial services industry...which is only double scary because it affects just about anybody who holds an investment portfolio.

For example, a year or so ago, I was looking at some mutual funds as part of rearranging some of my own portfolio, which had become a bit lopsided.   And I came up with this bright idea to rearrange it into a group of 9 funds that covered 9 classes of stocks/styles/broad sectors.   But I had a hard time finding any one fund that wasn't overweighted in the financial/banking sector.  Put another way, I had a hard time arranging a portfolio of 9 mutual funds that didn't still leave me stuck with an aggregate 20% in the financial/banking sector.  I didn't have any sort of crystal ball, but when I noticed fund after fund after fun was had a strong position in financial/banking, my buy low/sell high instincts suggested it probably wasn't a good time to get involved in it myself.

Everybody was riding the same financial/banking bull, which has since evolved into not just a bear, but a frigging bear embryo.

Still, thank goodness for that.  It was totally out of control.

As for $5/gal gas, it is not like this couldn't be foreseen.  And yet, still, the cost of gas in the US is still half that in Europe.  I mean, BFD.  What really depresses me is all this and yet ZERO progress on a real energy policy over the past 7 years, as if we'd basically shoot and bomb our way to energy independence.

But with that comes opportunity, and I'm loading up on what I think of as plays on sectors and businesses that look to be in a good position when the economy perks up again in a new world, one where conservation and alternative energy and recycling will be good words.

But overall, I'm really crying a deep river for all those Ivy league grads who've been out of undergrad for maybe 5 years and won't be seeing those annual 6 and 7 figure bonuses anymore.

GMAFB. 

I'm completely chilled - it was all tounge in cheek, but apparently ill-received. 

Every recession is unique - and yet its not.  We've experienced all of these conditions before, but perhaps not in the same combination.  Does that make it a lost cause?  Absolutely not.

Fuzzy said it earlier - we've heard the 'end of the world' cries before, several times actually.  The good times are rarely as good as we remember, and the current times are rarely as bad as we think.  Its like that relationship that fell apart in high school - it hurt like hell and felt like it was going to impact your entire life.  In retrospect it did not, not even close.  So for those of you that may not have experienced this before - yes, it sucks hard.  For those of us that have - it still sucks, but less so (unless you work(ed) for a mortgage company - then it still sucks hard).